SharpstieriDetroit LionsatMiami Dolphins
- The Lions won (they closed at -294 on the moneyline).
- Against the closing spread, the Lions covered -6.5.
- 28 total points against a closing total of 51.5: the under hit.
Sharp signals point to the Dolphins: a reverse line move, Circa money and the line moving 1 point their way through 7. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read before the start
- Pinnacle had Lions -7.5 on Sun, Nov 1. It's now -6.5, 1 point toward the Dolphins, right through the key number 7.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 88% of spread bets and 89% of the money are on the Lions.
- At Circa, where pros bet, only 24% of bets but 86% of the money is on the Dolphins: fewer, bigger bets.
- That's reverse line movement: most bets are on the Lions, but the line moved toward the Dolphins. Books move against the crowd when respected money hits the other side.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $1.9M traded on Kalshi), the Dolphins are +251 to +279 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +254 and your best is +270.
- The total went 49.5 → 51.5 (toward the over).
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 7 moves
First seen at your books: Dolphins +8.5 / Dolphins +7 / Dolphins +7.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: Dolphins +7 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: Dolphins +7.5 (-125)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from Dolphins +8.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Show 4 earlier moves
Circa Dolphins +7 → Dolphins +6.5, toward the Dolphins
Your books right then: best Dolphins +7 (-108) at BetRivers, still up for 5 min (until Thu, 11/5, 7:15 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Lions, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Dolphins +7.5 → Dolphins +7, toward the Dolphins
Your books right then: best Dolphins +7 (-106) at BetRivers, still up for 3h 40m (until Fri, 11/6, 12:18 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Lions, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Dolphins +7 → Dolphins +6.5, toward the Dolphins
Your books right then: best Dolphins +6.5 (-104) at Caesars, still up for 18h 42m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:40 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Lions, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Dolphins +6.5 → Dolphins +6, toward the Dolphins
Your books right then: best Dolphins +6.5 (-107) at BetRivers, still up for 5h 20m (until Sun, 11/8, 5:28 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 87% on the Lions, so this move went against the public.
Circa Dolphins +6.5 → Dolphins +6, toward the Dolphins
Your books right then: best Dolphins +6.5 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 4h 39m (until Sun, 11/8, 12:49 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 88% on the Lions, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Dolphins +6 → Dolphins +6.5, toward the Lions
Your books right then: best Lions -6.5 (-105) at BetMGM, still up for 8 min (until Sun, 11/8, 8:19 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 88% on the Lions.
Circa Dolphins +6 → Dolphins +6.5, toward the Lions
Your books right then: best Lions -6.5 (-109) at Caesars, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 88% on the Lions.
Pinnacle Dolphins +6.5 (-105) · Circa Dolphins +6.5 (+100)
Best Dolphins at your books: Dolphins +6.5 (+100) at theScore Bet
Best Lions at your books: Lions -6.5 (-109) at Caesars
- Best Dolphins all week: Dolphins +8.5 (-120) at FanDuel, Tue, 10/27, 3:48 PM to Tue, 10/27, 9:48 PM
- Best Lions all week: Lions -6 (-112) at BetMGM, Sun, 11/8, 9:46 AM to Sun, 11/8, 10:04 AM
Total · 6 moves
First seen at your books: 48.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: 49 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 49.5 (-106)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 48.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Show 3 earlier moves
Circa 49 → 50.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 49.5 (-110) at Caesars, still up for 11h 6m (until Mon, 11/2, 11:52 AM).
Circa 50.5 → 49.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 50.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 41h 7m (until Sun, 11/8, 9:27 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 72% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Circa 49.5 → 50, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 49.5 (-114) at BetRivers, still up for 4h 39m (until Sun, 11/8, 12:49 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 68% on the Over.
Pinnacle 49.5 → 50.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 49.5 (-114) at BetRivers, still up for 4h 38m (until Sun, 11/8, 12:49 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 64% on the Over.
Circa 50 → 51, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 50.5 (-105) at theScore Bet, still up for 1 min (until Sun, 11/8, 12:53 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 69% on the Over.
Pinnacle 50.5 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 50.5 (-107) at Caesars, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 69% on the Over.
Pinnacle 51.5 (+104) · Circa 51 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 50.5 (-107) at Caesars
Best Under at your books: Under 50.5 (-105) at FanDuel
- Best Over all week: Over 48.5 (-112) at Bally Bet, Sun, 11/1, 6:06 PM to Mon, 11/2, 12:34 AM
- Best Under all week: Under 50.5 (-113) at Bally Bet, Sun, 11/8, 12:51 PM (still up)
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Lions | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | -6.5-105 | +6.5-105 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/1 · not the opener | -7.5+111 | +7.5-125 |
| ExchangesReference only · $2.2M traded on Kalshi | -6.5-108Kalshi -6.5 -108 · Novig -6.5 -106 · Matchbook -6.5 -129 · SX Bet -6.5 -106 · Polymarket -6.5 -110 · ProphetX -6.5 -108 · Betfair -6.5 -110 | +6.5-104Kalshi +6.5 -112 · Novig +6.5 +104 · Matchbook +6.5 -104 · SX Bet +6.5 +103 · Polymarket +6.5 -105 · ProphetX +6.5 +102 · Betfair +6.5 -105 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | -6.5-120since Sun 12:42 PM | +6.5+100since Sun 12:42 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | -6.5-112opened -7 -115 | +6.5-108opened +7 -105 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened -8.5 -102 | opened +8.5 -120 |
| CaesarsYour book | check the app · unchanged 37 h | opened +7 -104 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened -7 -118 | opened +7 -102 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened -7.5 -114 | opened +7.5 -107 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened -7.5 -105 | opened +7.5 -115 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened -7.5 -114 | opened +7.5 -107 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 12:50 PM
Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 12:19 PM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 12:29 PM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
3 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseDolphins are a home underdog. Teams in this spot are 1227-1206-69 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 439-421-19.
- Probably noiseLions are a road favorite. Teams in this spot are 1206-1227-69 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 421-439-19.
- Probably noiseLions have won 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 1028-1022-46 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 340-339-11.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 1999. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
Referee: Land Clark
Since 2018, in 100 games: overs 46-52-2 (47%), home teams 43-53-4 ATS (45%). Probably noise
Crew assignment from Football Zebras, published midweek.
Injury news
Starters on either team, from ESPN's injury feed (checked every 10 minutes), newest first, with how Pinnacle's line has reacted since each update.
- QuestionableBrian BranchLions S · starterWed 8:32 PM ETBranch (concussion) was estimated as a limited participant on the Lions' official injury report Wednesday, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.Pinnacle had the Lions -7.5 at the news, now -6.5 (moved 1 against them).
- QuestionableDante Trader Jr.Dolphins S · starterWed 4:31 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Dolphins +7.5 at the news, now +6.5 (moved 1 toward them).
- QuestionableMichael TaaffeDolphins S · starterWed 4:31 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Dolphins +7.5 at the news, now +6.5 (moved 1 toward them).
- QuestionableZach SielerDolphins DT · starterWed 4:30 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Dolphins +7.5 at the news, now +6.5 (moved 1 toward them).
- QuestionableChop RobinsonDolphins LB · starterWed 4:30 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Dolphins +7.5 at the news, now +6.5 (moved 1 toward them).
- QuestionableTucker AddingtonDolphins LS · starterWed 4:30 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Dolphins +7.5 at the news, now +6.5 (moved 1 toward them).
- QuestionableJaylen WrightDolphins RB · starterWed 4:29 PM ETWright (quadriceps) was a non-participant in Wednesday's practice, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.Pinnacle had the Dolphins +7.5 at the news, now +6.5 (moved 1 toward them).
- QuestionableAmon-Ra St. BrownLions WR · starterWed 4:00 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Lions -7.5 at the news, now -6.5 (moved 1 against them).
- QuestionableD.J. ReedLions CB · starterMon 8:21 PM ETReed (hip) is not expected to practice Wednesday, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.Pinnacle had the Lions -7.5 at the news, now -6.5 (moved 1 against them).
- QuestionableCade MaysLions C · starterMon 6:16 PM ETMays sustained a low ankle sprain during Detroit's win over the Vikings on Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports.Pinnacle had the Lions -7.5 at the news, now -6.5 (moved 1 against them).
- DoubtfulJack CampbellLions LB · starterMon 3:33 PM ETThe Lions announced Monday that "preliminary indications are positive" for Campbell (neck), who continues to rest and recover at a Detroit-area hospital.Pinnacle had the Lions -7.5 at the news, now -6.5 (moved 1 against them).
- OutKadyn ProctorDolphins OT · starterMon 2:10 PM EToutPinnacle had the Dolphins +7.5 at the news, now +6.5 (moved 1 toward them).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Hard Rock Stadium
Injuries
Lions
- C Cade Mays · ankle
- DE DJ Wonnum · concussion
- LB Jack Campbell · neck
- CB D.J. Reed · hip
- S Kerby Joseph · knee
- RB Jacob Saylors · neck
- RB Sione Vaki · ankle
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown · rib
Dolphins
- RB Jaylen Wright · quadricep
- RB Kaytron Allen · quadricep
- DE Malik Herring · neck
Official NFL injury report (via nflverse, updated daily). Checked Sun 3:25 PM ET.