Take it now

How “Take it now” works

It isn't a prediction. The main call needs two things at once, both from prices and betting splits you can check on each game page; a smaller “price only” call needs just a clearly better price (below).

1. The sharps are on one side

Each sharp signal adds points to the team it favors. A team needs 3 or more points, and 2 more than the other team:

2. Your book's price is worth more than Pinnacle's

On that team, one of your books (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, BetRivers, theScore Bet or Bally Bet) must be worth at least 1% more than Pinnacle's fair price (Pinnacle's odds with its cut removed), counting both the number and the juice. A half point is valued by how often games land on that exact margin: onto 3 is worth the most in football (about 8.5% of close NFL games), then 7; other half points are worth much less. So +3 at −117 vs Pinnacle's +2.5 at +101 is actually about 2% worse, while +2.5 at +110 would be better. A good price with no sharp signals behind it is still a pass.

Price only (smaller bet)

When there's no clear sharp side but one of your books is worth +1.5% or more over Pinnacle's fair price (+2% for totals), that's a Take it now too, marked price only: a price better than the market's best estimate is the edge by itself. The higher bar covers the rough spots in the math, the bet size is halved, and it's never taken when the sharps are on the other side. The Track record shows these separately, so you can see if they work.

Spread or moneyline, and totals

In football, once the sharps are on a team, the app checks both the spread and the moneyline at your books and names whichever is better value. Same bet on the same team, better price.

Totals (over/under) get their own call with the same signals, read on the total: most bets on the over while Pinnacle drops the total (a reverse move), big money on the over or under at Circa, steam on the total, and Pinnacle's total moving. Totals need +1.5% value instead of +1%, because how often games land on an exact total is harder to pin down. A game can have one side call and one total call; when both say Take it now, each bet size is halved, since they can win or lose together (an underdog and the under often go together).

When Pinnacle is less reliable

Pinnacle's number is the yardstick, but it's weaker early in the week (more than 4 days before kickoff, when it takes small bets) and in thin markets, which Pinnacle itself signals by charging a bigger cut than usual (3.5%+). Then a call needs 1% more edge, unless an exchange (Novig, Kalshi and others) prices it as good too. Calls held back for this say so. The Track record also grades each signal separately (reverse move, Circa money, steam, price only, exchange confirmed…) so over time you can see which ones actually beat the close.

How much to bet

Each Take it now shows a size, based on your unit of $100 to win. The bigger the edge, the bigger the bet (a quarter of the “Kelly” amount pros use, since every edge is an estimate): about $25 to win at +1%, $50 at +2%, $100 at +4%, and up to $200 (2 units) at +8% or more when the sharps agree. Price-only bets top out at 1 unit: full size in football (they've beaten the closing line as often as the rest), a quarter in baseball while unproven. A side + total in the same game are halved. Edges of +5% or more come with a warning to double-check the price: the bigger an edge looks, the likelier it's a stale price. It assumes a unit is about 1% of your betting money.

Before an alert goes out

A call on the page isn't pushed to your phone until it passes these checks, each added after a real bad alert:

• Fresh prices: the game's prices are pulled again right before sending, and the whole call is re-checked on them. It goes out only if it's still the same bet at the same price or better.
• A second feed: a separate, real-time odds feed must show the same price at FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers or theScore Bet. (BetMGM and Bally Bet aren't covered by it.)
• Prices flip-flopping: a price that keeps changing must still be up about 90 seconds later.
• News: when a book takes its line down, or two books move a full point together while Pinnacle doesn't, every call on the game waits about 15 minutes. Moves like that are usually news.
• Pinnacle behind: when 3 or more books have moved away from the price and Pinnacle hasn't yet, Pinnacle is the slow one, not your book, so there's no call. (The Model check page also counts alerts where Pinnacle caught up within 15 minutes.)
• Stale or suspended prices: a price the feed hasn't updated in 3+ hours while the book changed its other lines, or a book that stopped updating for 10+ minutes while others moved and is now far better than all of them, is treated as not really there. A price far off every other book but still updating gets a warning to keep the size normal.
• Exchanges: if even the most favorable exchange (Novig, Kalshi and others) prices the bet worse than fair, no call.
• Circa: Circa, the sharpest legal US book (Pinnacle, offshore, is the world's sharpest), is a second sharp price. If Circa has moved since Pinnacle last did and prices the bet worse than fair, Pinnacle is behind: no call. Circa's price is checked again the second before an alert is sent. When Pinnacle is less reliable (early in the week, thin markets, college mismatches), Circa agreeing counts like an exchange agreeing.
• New York: games New York doesn't let you bet (its own college teams) are skipped.

Phone alerts

Only Take it now buzzes your phone (NFL, college football and baseball, any hour); line moves, weather, Circa and news are listed on the Alerts page. The alert leads with the money: “Risk $105 → win $100 (1u) · Under 59.5 (-105) Caesars · no worse than -108”, with a second line only when it matters (the game starts within 3 minutes, a book just jumped to this price and it can snap back, a better book to check first). A second alert on a bet already called goes out only when it's a better price than the first and worth 1% more; otherwise it's listed in the app. Tapping the alert opens the game; mark Got it there or on Home and the bet is logged for you.

What makes a call go away

Your book matches Pinnacle, Pinnacle moves back, the signals change, or the game starts. The first call on each game is kept on the Track record either way.

The other answers on each game

• Sharp side: wait: sharps are on it, nothing is worth betting right now, but one of your books has offered a good enough price since the sharp move, so it can realistically come back. It names the price.
• Close to fair (an extra label): sharps are on it and your best price is within 2% of fair, roughly break-even. Fine for a small fun bet (no more than $25 to win); not an edge, and not on the track record.
• Sharp side: no bet: sharps are on it, but no good enough price has shown up since the sharp move. It shows what it would take, but lines rarely move back against sharp money, so skip it.
• Too late: same, but kickoff is under a day away. Don't chase it.
• Pass: no clear sharp side. Most games, and that's fine.

How often it updates

So more than a day out, a new call can take up to about 10 minutes to appear after a line moves; in the last 3 hours about a minute, and in the final hour about 20 seconds (plus up to 90 seconds for a price that's flip-flopping). Books can still move faster than that: check the price at your book before you bet.