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New York JetsatKansas City Chiefs

NFL · Final · November 8
Final
Jets 12Chiefs 35
Bottom line before the start

Sharp signals point to the Jets: Circa money. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.

The read before the start

Line timeline

Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.

Spread · 7 moves

  1. First seen at your books: Chiefs -8.5 / Chiefs -9.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)

  2. Circa first seen: Chiefs -9.5 (-110)

  3. Pinnacle first seen: Chiefs -10 (-106)

    Not the opener: your books had already moved from Chiefs -8.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.

Show 4 earlier moves

  1. Circa Chiefs -9.5 → Chiefs -10, toward the Chiefs

    Your books right then: best Chiefs -9.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up for 17h 9m (until Mon, 11/2, 2:33 PM).

    DraftKings bets then: 56% on the Chiefs.

  2. Circa Chiefs -10 → Chiefs -8.5, toward the Jets

    Your books right then: best Jets +10 (-114) at BetRivers, still up for 26h 48m (until Tue, 11/3, 6:36 PM).

    DraftKings bets then: 53% on the Chiefs.

  3. Circa Chiefs -8.5 → Chiefs -9.5, toward the Chiefs

    Your books right then: best Chiefs -9.5 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 30 min (until Tue, 11/3, 12:50 PM).

    DraftKings bets then: 63% on the Chiefs.

  4. Circa Chiefs -9.5 → Chiefs -10, toward the Chiefs

    Your books right then: best Chiefs -9.5 (-115) at BetRivers, still up for 34 min (until Wed, 11/4, 1:02 PM).

    DraftKings bets then: 66% on the Chiefs.

  1. Circa Chiefs -10 → Chiefs -9.5, toward the Jets

    Your books right then: best Jets +10 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 5h 46m (until Fri, 11/6, 4:42 PM).

    DraftKings bets then: 58% on the Chiefs.

  2. Circa Chiefs -9.5 → Chiefs -9, toward the Jets

    Your books right then: best Jets +10 (-115) at BetRivers, still up for 4h 4m (until Sun, 11/8, 7:00 AM).

    DraftKings bets then: 58% on the Chiefs.

  3. Circa Chiefs -9 → Chiefs -8.5, toward the Jets

    Your books right then: best Jets +9.5 (-107) at BetRivers, still up now.

    DraftKings bets then: 59% on the Chiefs.

  4. Pinnacle Chiefs -10 (+106) · Circa Chiefs -8.5 (-110)

    Best Chiefs at your books: Chiefs -9 (-108) at BetMGM

    Best Jets at your books: Jets +9.5 (-107) at BetRivers

  • Best Chiefs all week: Chiefs -8.5 (-110) at BetMGM, Sun, 11/8, 11:37 AM to Sun, 11/8, 12:34 PM
  • Best Jets all week: Jets +10 (-115) at BetRivers, Sun, 11/8, 12:53 AM to Sun, 11/8, 7:00 AM
Total · 9 moves

  1. First seen at your books: 44.5 / 43.5 / 44 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)

  2. Circa first seen: 43.5 (-110)

  3. Pinnacle first seen: 46 (-107)

    Not the opener: your books had already moved from 44.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.

Show 6 earlier moves

  1. Circa 43.5 → 45, toward the Over

    Your books right then: best Over 45 (-112) at BetRivers, still up for 3h 8m (until Mon, 11/2, 12:32 AM).

  2. Circa 45 → 46.5, toward the Over

    Your books right then: best Over 45 (-112) at BetRivers, still up for 2h 6m (until Mon, 11/2, 12:32 AM).

  3. Pinnacle 46 → 47, toward the Over

    Your books right then: best Over 46 (-112) at BetRivers, still up for 5h 51m (until Tue, 11/3, 6:34 PM).

    DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Over.

  4. Circa 46.5 → 47.5, toward the Over

    Your books right then: best Over 46.5 (-113) at BetRivers, still up for 6 min (until Tue, 11/3, 8:00 PM).

    DraftKings bets then: 71% on the Over.

  5. Pinnacle 47 → 48, toward the Over

    Your books right then: best Over 47 (-112) at BetRivers, still up for 4 min (until Thu, 11/5, 5:06 PM).

    DraftKings bets then: 56% on the Under.

  6. Pinnacle 48 → 48.5, toward the Over

    Your books right then: best Over 47.5 (-108) at BetRivers, still up for 8h 4m (until Fri, 11/6, 4:42 PM).

    DraftKings bets then: 61% on the Under, so this move went against the public.

  1. Circa 47.5 → 48, toward the Over

    Your books right then: best Over 47.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up for 2h 1m (until Sun, 11/8, 10:23 AM).

    DraftKings bets then: 51% on the Over.

  2. Pinnacle 48.5 → 47.5, toward the Under

    Your books right then: best Under 47.5 (-108) at Caesars, still up now.

    DraftKings bets then: 50% on the Over.

  3. Circa 48 → 47, toward the Under

    Your books right then: best Under 47.5 (-108) at Caesars, still up now.

    DraftKings bets then: 50% on the Over.

  4. Pinnacle 47.5 (-104) · Circa 47 (-110)

    Best Over at your books: Over 47.5 (-105) at theScore Bet

    Best Under at your books: Under 47.5 (-108) at Caesars

  • Best Over all week: Over 42.5 (-110) at FanDuel, Thu, 10/29, 12:16 PM to Thu, 10/29, 6:16 PM
  • Best Under all week: Under 48.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, Fri, 11/6, 7:18 PM to Sat, 11/7, 9:49 AM

How the line moved

Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.

-11-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1PK+1+2key 3key 7WedThuFriSatSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun
Pinnacle (sharp)Kalshi (exchange, since Sep 24)FanDuelCaesarsBetMGMBetRiverstheScore BetBally BetKey numbers
BookJetsChiefs
PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here+10-117-10+106
PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/1 · not the opener+10-106-10-106
ExchangesReference only · $1.2M traded on Kalshi+9.5-106Kalshi +9.5 -112 · Novig +9.5 -102 · Matchbook +9.5 -109 · SX Bet +9.5 -106 · Polymarket +9.5 -105 · ProphetX +9.5 -106 · Betfair +9.5 -106-9.5-104Kalshi -9.5 -108 · Novig -9.5 +100 · Matchbook -9.5 -102 · SX Bet -9.5 -104 · Polymarket -9.5 -110 · ProphetX -9.5 -100 · Betfair -9.5 -110
CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY+8.5-110since Sun 10:34 AM-8.5-110since Sun 10:34 AM
DraftKingsThe public's book · view only+9.5-110opened here-9.5-110opened here
FanDuelYour bookopened +8.5 -105opened -8.5 -115
CaesarsYour bookopened +9.5 -112opened -9.5 -108
BetMGMYour bookopened +9.5 -108opened -9.5 -110
BetRiversYour bookopened +9.5 -112opened -9.5 -109
theScore BetYour bookopened hereopened here
Bally BetYour bookopened +9.5 -112opened -9.5 -109

Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.

FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, BetRivers, theScore Bet and Bally Bet, every alternate line they offer.

Check a boost

Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.

Money vs tickets · Spread

Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.

Sharp read from the line

Pinnacle hasn't moved much yet, so there's no sharp lean in the price.

DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 12:50 PM

JetsChiefs
% of bets
38%62%
% of money
21%79%

Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 12:19 PM

JetsChiefs
% of bets
30%70%
% of money
82%18%

BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 12:59 PM

JetsChiefs
% of bets
29%71%
% of money
Not published by this book

Trends & officials

How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.

None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.

3 more situations apply, all probably noise
  • Probably noise
    Jets have lost 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 945-880-48 ATS (52% cover); since 2018: 311-273-20.
  • Probably noise
    Chiefs are a double-digit favorite. Teams in this spot are 424-462-25 ATS (48% cover); since 2018: 142-146-10.
  • Probably noise
    Jets are a double-digit underdog. Teams in this spot are 462-424-25 ATS (52% cover); since 2018: 146-142-10.

ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 1999. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.

Referee: Adrian Hill

Since 2018, in 117 games: overs 53-64 (45%), home teams 55-60-2 ATS (48%). Probably noise

Crew assignment from Football Zebras, published midweek.

Injury news

Starters on either team, from ESPN's injury feed (checked every 10 minutes), newest first, with how Pinnacle's line has reacted since each update.

Game context

Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.

Weather at kickoff

Arrowhead Stadium

60°FClear
4 mphwind, gusts to 8
0%chance of rain

Injuries

Jets

Out
  • WR Garrett Wilson · concussion
  • DE Joseph Ossai · ankle
  • LB Trevin Wallace · groin
  • CB Nahshon Wright · back
  • S VJ Payne · knee
Questionable
  • DT Harrison Phillips · ankle

Chiefs

Out
  • DT Omarr Norman-Lott · knee
  • DT Peter Woods · neck
  • CB Mansoor Delane · shoulder
Questionable
  • WR Nikko Remigio · hip

Official NFL injury report (via nflverse, updated daily). Checked Sun 3:25 PM ET.