SharpstieriHouston TexansatLos Angeles Chargers
- The Texans won (they closed at -223 on the moneyline).
- Against the closing spread, the Texans covered -5.5.
- 66 total points against a closing total of 40.5: the over hit.
Sharp signals point to the Texans: a steam move. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read before the start
- Pinnacle went from Texans -4.5 to -5.5, but the price moved the other way, so the chance of covering -4.5 barely changed (under 1%). That's not a real move.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 63% of spread bets and 50% of the money are on the Texans.
- At Circa, where pros bet, 52% of the money and 56% of bets are on the Chargers.
- The sharpest moment: around Thu, Nov 5, 2:49 PM ET, Pinnacle and 3 other books moved the spread the same way within an hour. That's a steam move, usually big money hitting at once.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $1.4M traded on Kalshi), the Chargers are +184 to +202 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +197 and your best is +195.
- The total hasn't moved from 40.5.
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 6 moves
First seen at your books: Chargers +3 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: Chargers +4 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: Chargers +4.5 (-106)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from Chargers +3 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Show 3 earlier moves
Circa Chargers +4 → Chargers +4.5, toward the Texans
Your books right then: best Texans -4.5 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 12 min (until Sun, 11/1, 9:36 PM).
Circa Chargers +4.5 → Chargers +6, toward the Texans
Your books right then: best Texans -4.5 (-112) at BetRivers, still up for 2 min (until Thu, 11/5, 3:42 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 79% on the Texans.
Pinnacle Chargers +4.5 → Chargers +5.5, toward the Texans
Your books right then: best Texans -4.5 (-112) at BetRivers, still up for 4 min (until Thu, 11/5, 3:52 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 79% on the Texans.
Pinnacle Chargers +5.5 → Chargers +6, toward the Texans
Your books right then: best Texans -5.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up for 46h 50m (until Sun, 11/8, 4:02 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Texans.
Pinnacle Chargers +6 → Chargers +5.5, toward the Chargers
Your books right then: best Chargers +6 (-110) at Caesars, still up for 36 min (until Sun, 11/8, 9:17 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 63% on the Texans, so this move went against the public.
Circa Chargers +6 → Chargers +5.5, toward the Chargers
Your books right then: best Chargers +6 (-110) at Caesars, still up for 9 min (until Sun, 11/8, 9:17 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 63% on the Texans, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Chargers +5.5 (-111) · Circa Chargers +5.5 (-110)
Best Chargers at your books: Chargers +5.5 (-108) at BetMGM
Best Texans at your books: Texans -5 (-113) at BetRivers
- Best Chargers all week: Chargers +6 (-112) at BetMGM, Fri, 11/6, 5:08 PM to Sat, 11/7, 11:18 PM
- Best Texans all week: Texans -3 (-120) at Caesars, Sun, 11/1, 6:07 PM to Sun, 11/1, 6:09 PM
Total · 5 moves
First seen at your books: 42.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: 42 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 40.5 (-106)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 42.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Show 2 earlier moves
Circa 42 → 41, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 41.5 (-105) at FanDuel, still up for 10h 18m (until Mon, 11/2, 11:04 AM).
Circa 41 → 40, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 41.5 (-107) at Caesars, still up for 34 min (until Mon, 11/2, 11:52 AM).
Circa 40 → 40.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 40.5 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 3h 21m (until Mon, 11/2, 5:13 PM).
Circa 40.5 → 41, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 40.5 (-114) at BetRivers, still up for 3h 30m (until Tue, 11/3, 12:52 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Over.
Circa 41 → 40.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 40.5 (-105) at FanDuel, still up for 3 days (until Sun, 11/8, 2:15 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 54% on the Under.
Pinnacle 40.5 (-103) · Circa 40.5 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 40.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Best Under at your books: Under 40.5 (-108) at BetMGM
- Best Over all week: Over 40.5 (-108 to -112) at BetMGM, Thu, 11/5, 2:59 PM (still up)
- Best Under all week: Under 42.5 (-112) at BetRivers, Sun, 11/1, 6:12 PM to Sun, 11/1, 9:48 PM
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Texans | Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | -5.5+101 | +5.5-111 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Mon, 11/2 · not the opener | -4.5-106 | +4.5-106 |
| ExchangesReference only · $2.6M traded on Kalshi | -5.5+103Kalshi -5.5 -103 · Novig -5.5 +106 · Matchbook -5.5 +104 · SX Bet -5.5 +106 · Polymarket -5.5 -101 · ProphetX -5.5 +103 · Betfair -5.5 +101 | +5.5-113Kalshi +5.5 -116 · Novig +5.5 -108 · Matchbook +5.5 -113 · SX Bet +5.5 -107 · Polymarket +5.5 -114 · ProphetX +5.5 -110 · Betfair +5.5 -114 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | -5.5-110since Sun 9:08 AM | +5.5-110since Sun 9:08 AM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | -5.5-108opened -3 -110 | +5.5-112opened +3 -110 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened -3 -110 | opened +3 -110 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened -3 -110 | opened +3 -110 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened -3.5 -110 | opened +3.5 -110 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened -3 -117 | opened +3 -105 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened -4 -105 | opened +4 -115 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened -3 -117 | opened +3 -105 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:00 PM
Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 2:19 PM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:00 PM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
6 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseChargers are a home underdog. Teams in this spot are 1228-1210-69 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 440-425-19.
- Probably noiseTexans are a road favorite. Teams in this spot are 1210-1228-69 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 425-440-19.
- Probably noiseChargers have lost 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 946-882-48 ATS (52% cover); since 2018: 312-275-20.
- Probably noiseTexans have 3+ more days of rest than their opponent. Teams in this spot are 720-693-32 ATS (51% cover); since 2018: 255-245-9.
- Probably noiseTexans are coming off a bye. Teams in this spot are 510-502-23 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 145-152-7.
- Probably noiseTexans are off an upset loss as a 7+ point favorite. Teams in this spot are 216-180-17 ATS (55% cover); since 2018: 69-56-3.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 1999. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
Referee: Alex Moore
Since 2018, in 21 games: overs 11-10 (52%), home teams 10-11 ATS (48%). Probably noise
Crew assignment from Football Zebras, published midweek.
Injury news
Starters on either team, from ESPN's injury feed (checked every 10 minutes), newest first, with how Pinnacle's line has reacted since each update.
- QuestionableAzeez Al-ShaairTexans LB · starterWed 6:55 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Texans -4.5 at the news, now -5.5 (moved 1 toward them).
- ActiveJalen PitreTexans S · starterWed 6:54 PM ETPinnacle had the Texans -4.5 at the news, now -5.5 (moved 1 toward them).
- QuestionableDaiyan HenleyChargers LB · starterWed 6:48 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Chargers +4.5 at the news, now +5.5 (moved 1 against them).
- QuestionableDonte JacksonChargers CB · starterTue 8:03 AM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Chargers +4.5 at the news, now +5.5 (moved 1 against them).
- QuestionableReed BlankenshipTexans S · starterMon 7:50 PM ETBlankenship (concussion/hand) underwent surgery on his left hand in October, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports.No Pinnacle spread yet.
- OutKayode AwosikaChargers G · starterMon 2:07 PM EToutNo Pinnacle spread yet.
- QuestionableDavid MontgomeryTexans RB · starterMon 11:29 AM ETTexans head coach DeMeco Ryans said Monday that he has "no significant update" on the status of Montgomery (groin) heading into a Week 9 matchup with the Chargers, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports.No Pinnacle spread yet.
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
SoFi Stadium
Indoors. Weather won't matter.
Injuries
Texans
- RB David Montgomery · groin
- S Reed Blankenship · concussion
Chargers
- CB Deane Leonard · concussion
- S Kendall Williamson · calf
- WR Brenen Thompson · quadricep
- TE David Njoku · fibula
- G Kayode Awosika · fibula
- LB Denzel Perryman · pectoral
Official NFL injury report (via nflverse, updated daily). Checked Sun 6:25 PM ET.