SharpstieriLas Vegas RaidersatSan Francisco 49ers
- The 49ers won (they closed at -450 on the moneyline).
- Against the closing spread, the 49ers covered -10.
- 55 total points against a closing total of 52.5: the over hit.
Sharp signals point to the Raiders: Circa money. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read before the start
- The spread hasn't moved. Pinnacle has had 49ers -10 since we started tracking it (Sun, Nov 1).
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 56% of spread bets and 70% of the money are on the 49ers.
- At Circa, where pros bet, only 41% of bets but 56% of the money is on the Raiders: fewer, bigger bets.
- The sharpest moment: around Tue, Nov 3, 6:14 PM ET, Pinnacle and 2 other books moved the total the same way within an hour. That's a steam move, usually big money hitting at once.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $6.6M traded on Kalshi), the Raiders are +350 to +397 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +369 and your best is +380.
- The total went 51.5 → 52.5, but the price moved the other way, so it isn't a real move: the chance of going over 51.5 is about the same.
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 4 moves
First seen at your books: 49ers -9.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: 49ers -9.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 49ers -10 (+104)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 49ers -9.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Show 1 earlier move
Circa 49ers -9.5 → 49ers -10, toward the 49ers
Your books right then: best 49ers -9.5 (-105) at theScore Bet, still up for 15 min (until Mon, 11/2, 5:19 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 61% on the 49ers.
Circa 49ers -10 → 49ers -9.5, toward the Raiders
Your books right then: best Raiders +10 (-110) at theScore Bet, still up for 10h 48m (until Sat, 11/7, 4:12 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 55% on the Raiders.
Circa 49ers -9.5 → 49ers -9, toward the Raiders
Your books right then: best Raiders +9.5 (-106) at Caesars, still up for 10h 22m (until Sun, 11/8, 1:18 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 50% on the 49ers.
Circa 49ers -9 → 49ers -8.5, toward the Raiders
Your books right then: best Raiders +9.5 (-106) at Caesars, still up for 2h 44m (until Sun, 11/8, 1:18 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 50% on the 49ers.
Pinnacle 49ers -10 (+116) · Circa 49ers -8.5 (-110)
Best 49ers at your books: 49ers -8.5 (-110) at theScore Bet
Best Raiders at your books: Raiders +9.5 (-115) at FanDuel
- Best 49ers all week: 49ers -8.5 (-112) at BetRivers, Sun, 11/8, 4:24 PM (still up)
- Best Raiders all week: Raiders +10.5 (-115) at BetRivers, Fri, 10/30, 2:30 PM to Fri, 10/30, 8:30 PM
Total · 4 moves
First seen at your books: 48.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: 48.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 51.5 (-108)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 48.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Show 1 earlier move
Circa 48.5 → 51, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 51 (-114) at BetRivers, still up for 2h 54m (until Mon, 11/2, 12:18 AM).
Circa 51 → 52.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 51 (-114) at BetRivers, still up for 50 min (until Tue, 11/3, 3:52 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 80% on the Over.
Pinnacle 51.5 → 52.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 52 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 8 min (until Tue, 11/3, 6:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 80% on the Over.
Circa 52.5 → 51.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 52.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 3 days (until Sun, 11/8, 2:48 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 85% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle 52.5 (+105) · Circa 51.5 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 51.5 (-105) at theScore Bet
Best Under at your books: Under 52.5 (-113) at Bally Bet
- Best Over all week: Over 48.5 (-110) at Bally Bet, Tue, 10/27, 4:33 PM to Tue, 10/27, 10:33 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 53.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, Tue, 11/3, 6:13 PM to Tue, 11/3, 6:14 PM
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Raiders | 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +10-128 | -10+116 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/1 · not the opener | +10-117 | -10+104 |
| ExchangesReference only · $1.3M traded on Kalshi | +9.5-111Kalshi +9.5 -112 · Novig +9.5 -106 · Matchbook +9.5 -111 · SX Bet +9.5 -106 · Polymarket +9.5 -114 · ProphetX +9.5 -110 · Betfair +9.5 -112 | -9.5-101Kalshi -9.5 -108 · Novig -9.5 +104 · Matchbook -9.5 -105 · SX Bet -9.5 +106 · Polymarket -9.5 -101 · ProphetX -9.5 -100 · Betfair -9.5 -103 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +8.5-110since Sun 10:34 AM | -8.5-110since Sun 10:34 AM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +8.5-112opened +9.5 -110 | -8.5-108opened -9.5 -110 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +9.5 -110 | opened -9.5 -110 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened +9.5 -109 | opened -9.5 -109 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +8.5 -110 | opened -8.5 -108 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened +9.5 -112 | opened -9.5 -109 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +9.5 -115 | opened -9.5 -105 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened +9.5 -112 | opened -9.5 -109 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:20 PM
Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:20 PM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:20 PM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
5 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseRaiders are on their second straight road game. Teams in this spot are 1052-975-47 ATS (52% cover); since 2018: 324-330-15.
- Probably noise49ers have 3+ more days of rest than their opponent. Teams in this spot are 720-693-32 ATS (51% cover); since 2018: 255-245-9.
- Probably noise49ers are coming off a bye. Teams in this spot are 510-502-23 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 145-152-7.
- Probably noise49ers are a double-digit favorite. Teams in this spot are 424-462-25 ATS (48% cover); since 2018: 142-146-10.
- Probably noiseRaiders are a double-digit underdog. Teams in this spot are 462-424-25 ATS (52% cover); since 2018: 146-142-10.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 1999. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
Referee: Scott Novak
Since 2018, in 116 games: overs 56-60 (48%), home teams 46-67-3 ATS (41%). Probably noise
Crew assignment from Football Zebras, published midweek.
Injury news
Starters on either team, from ESPN's injury feed (checked every 10 minutes), newest first, with how Pinnacle's line has reacted since each update.
- ActiveUpton Stout49ers CB · starterSun 3:01 PM ETPinnacle still has the 49ers -10: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableDarien PorterRaiders CB · starterFri 7:14 PM ETPorter (groin) is listed as questionable ahead of Sunday's game against the 49ers, Ryan McFadden of ESPN.com reports.Pinnacle still has the Raiders +10: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableMarques Sigle49ers S · starterWed 10:29 PM ETSigle (ankle) was limited in Wednesday's practice.Pinnacle still has the 49ers -10: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableNick Bosa49ers DE · starterWed 7:07 PM ETBosa (knee) was limited in Wednesday's practice, Sam Warren of The Athletic reports.Pinnacle still has the 49ers -10: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableFolorunso FatukasiRaiders DT · starterWed 7:00 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Raiders +10: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableDeebo Samuel Sr.49ers WR · starterWed 3:59 PM ETSamuel (hamstring) won't take part in practice Wednesday, Cam Inman of The San Jose Mercury News reports.Pinnacle still has the 49ers -10: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableMike Evans49ers WR · starterWed 3:53 PM ETHead coach Kyle Shanahan said Evans (Achilles) won't practice Wednesday, NFL reporter Andrew Siciliano reports.Pinnacle still has the 49ers -10: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableChristian McCaffrey49ers RB · starterWed 3:51 PM ETMcCaffrey (hamstring) will not participate in Wednesday's practice, Cam Inman of Bay Area News Group reports.Pinnacle still has the 49ers -10: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- ActiveMalik BensonRaiders WR · starterMon 2:05 PM ETPinnacle still has the Raiders +10: the line hasn't reacted yet.
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Levi's Stadium
Injuries
Raiders
- DT Thomas Booker · ankle
- CB Darien Porter · groin
49ers
- WR Mike Evans · ribs
- WR Christian Kirk · knee
- WR Deebo Samuel Sr. · hamstring
- WR Demarcus Robinson · ankle
- CB Nate Hobbs · groin
- CB Upton Stout · shoulder
- S Siran Neal · knee
Official NFL injury report (via nflverse, updated daily). Checked Sun 6:25 PM ET.