SharpstieriArizona CardinalsatSeattle Seahawks
- The Seahawks won (they closed at -416 on the moneyline).
- Against the closing spread, the Seahawks covered -8.5.
- 20 total points against a closing total of 39.5: the under hit.
Sharp signals point to the Cardinals: a steam move and the line moving 2.5 points their way. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read before the start
- Pinnacle had Seahawks -11 on Mon, Nov 2. It's now -8.5, 2.5 points toward the Cardinals.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 55% of spread bets and 66% of the money are on the Seahawks.
- At Circa, where pros bet, 53% of the money and 59% of bets are on the Seahawks.
- The sharpest moment: around Wed, Nov 4, 1:50 PM ET, Pinnacle and 6 other books moved the spread the same way within an hour. That's a steam move, usually big money hitting at once.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $2.3M traded on Kalshi), the Cardinals are +330 to +365 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +345 and your best is +350.
- The total went 44.5 → 39.5 (toward the under).
- Quarterback Sam Darnold is out for the Seahawks.
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 9 moves
First seen at your books: Seahawks -12.5 / Seahawks -11 / Seahawks -11.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: Seahawks -11 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: Seahawks -11 (-106)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from Seahawks -12.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Show 6 earlier moves
Circa Seahawks -11 → Seahawks -11.5, toward the Seahawks
Your books right then: best Seahawks -10.5 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 11h 35m (until Mon, 11/2, 8:59 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 50% on the Seahawks.
Circa Seahawks -11.5 → Seahawks -10.5, toward the Cardinals
Your books right then: best Cardinals +11.5 (-110) at Caesars, still up for 12h 50m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 50% on the Seahawks.
Circa Seahawks -10.5 → Seahawks -12.5, toward the Seahawks
Your books right then: best Seahawks -10.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 11 min (until Tue, 11/3, 6:13 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 52% on the Seahawks.
Pinnacle Seahawks -11 → Seahawks -13, toward the Seahawks
Your books right then: best Seahawks -11.5 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 13h 36m (until Wed, 11/4, 8:36 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 52% on the Seahawks.
Circa Seahawks -12.5 → Seahawks -13, toward the Seahawks
Your books right then: best Seahawks -11.5 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 13h 30m (until Wed, 11/4, 8:36 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 52% on the Seahawks.
Pinnacle Seahawks -13 → Seahawks -8.5, toward the Cardinals
Your books right then: best Cardinals +9 (-110) at BetRivers, still up for 6 min (until Wed, 11/4, 2:18 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 56% on the Cardinals.
Circa Seahawks -13 → Seahawks -8.5, toward the Cardinals
Your books right then: best Cardinals +9 (-110) at BetRivers, still up for 6 min (until Wed, 11/4, 2:18 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 56% on the Cardinals.
Circa Seahawks -8.5 → Seahawks -8, toward the Cardinals
Your books right then: best Cardinals +8.5 (-110) at Caesars, still up for 14h 51m (until Sun, 11/8, 4:23 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 51% on the Seahawks.
Circa Seahawks -8 → Seahawks -8.5, toward the Seahawks
Your books right then: best Seahawks -8.5 (-108) at BetMGM, still up for 2h 38m (until Sun, 11/8, 12:56 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 52% on the Seahawks.
Pinnacle Seahawks -8.5 (-111) · Circa Seahawks -8.5 (-110)
Best Seahawks at your books: Seahawks -8.5 (-115) at FanDuel
Best Cardinals at your books: Cardinals +9.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- Best Seahawks all week: Seahawks -7.5 (-110 to -115) at theScore Bet, Wed, 11/4, 2:16 PM to Wed, 11/4, 5:43 PM
- Best Cardinals all week: Cardinals +12.5 (-113) at BetRivers, Wed, 11/4, 9:30 AM to Wed, 11/4, 9:36 AM
Total · 9 moves
First seen at your books: 44.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: 44.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 44.5 (-107)
Show 6 earlier moves
Circa 44.5 → 43, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-108) at Caesars, still up for 12h 8m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
Pinnacle 44.5 → 43.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-108) at Caesars, still up for 11h 32m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
Circa 43 → 42, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-108) at Caesars, still up for 10h 20m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
Pinnacle 43.5 → 42.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-108) at Caesars, still up for 10h 18m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
Circa 42 → 41.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-108) at Caesars, still up for 8h 30m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
Pinnacle 42.5 → 41.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-108) at Caesars, still up for 14 min (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 67% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle 41.5 → 39.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 39.5 (-107) at Caesars, still up for 46 min (until Wed, 11/4, 2:58 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 80% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Circa 41.5 → 39.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 39.5 (-107) at Caesars, still up for 46 min (until Wed, 11/4, 2:58 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 80% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Circa 39.5 → 40, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 39.5 (-108) at BetRivers, still up for 2h 30m (until Sun, 11/8, 4:10 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 78% on the Over.
Pinnacle 39.5 (-114) · Circa 40 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 39.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Best Under at your books: Under 40 (-112) at BetMGM
- Best Over all week: Over 38.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, Sat, 11/7, 11:14 PM to Sat, 11/7, 11:18 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 45.5 (-108) at Caesars, Sun, 11/1, 8:12 PM to Sun, 11/1, 8:30 PM
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Cardinals | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +8.5+101 | -8.5-111 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Mon, 11/2 · not the opener | +11-106 | -11-106 |
| ExchangesReference only · $437K traded on Kalshi | +8.5+100Kalshi +9.5 -116 · Novig +8.5 +100 · Matchbook +8.5 -104 · SX Bet +8.5 +101 · Polymarket +8.5 -105 · ProphetX +8.5 +103 · Betfair +8.5 -103 | -8.5-105Kalshi -9.5 +101 · Novig -8.5 -104 · Matchbook -8.5 -104 · SX Bet -8.5 -105 · Polymarket -8.5 -110 · ProphetX -8.5 -107 · Betfair -8.5 -110 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +8.5-110since Sun 10:18 AM | -8.5-110since Sun 10:18 AM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +9.5-115opened +10.5 -110 | -9.5-105opened -10.5 -110 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +12.5 -110 | opened -12.5 -110 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened +11 -110 | opened -11 -110 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +11 -108 | opened -11 -110 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened +11.5 -109 | opened -11.5 -112 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +10.5 -110 | opened -10.5 -110 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened +11.5 -109 | opened -11.5 -112 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:20 PM
Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:20 PM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:00 PM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
- LeansCardinals are an underdog in a division game. Teams in this spot are 1405-1287-75 ATS (52% cover); since 2018: 432-379-14.
3 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseCardinals are on their second straight road game. Teams in this spot are 1052-975-47 ATS (52% cover); since 2018: 324-330-15.
- Probably noiseSeahawks are off a loss by 17+. Teams in this spot are 893-859-45 ATS (51% cover); since 2018: 270-267-8.
- Probably noiseCardinals are off an upset win as a 7+ point underdog. Teams in this spot are 200-210-15 ATS (49% cover); since 2018: 56-68-3.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 1999. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Since 2018, in 138 games: overs 67-71 (49%), home teams 69-66-3 ATS (51%). Probably noise
Crew assignment from Football Zebras, published midweek.
Injury news
Starters on either team, from ESPN's injury feed (checked every 10 minutes), newest first, with how Pinnacle's line has reacted since each update.
- OutSam DarnoldSeahawks QB · starterWed 2:02 PM ETHead coach Mike Macdonald announced that Darnold won't play Sunday against the Cardinals due to a quadriceps injury, NFL reporter Andrew Siciliano reports.Pinnacle still has the Seahawks -8.5: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- ActiveIsaiah AdamsCardinals G · starterSat 10:11 PM ETThe Cardinals activated Adams (ankle) off injured reserve Saturday, and he remains questionable for Sunday's matchup against the Seahawks.Pinnacle has the Cardinals +8.5, unchanged since the app picked this up 17h after it was posted. It may have moved on the news before that; check the line chart.
- OutJayden WilliamsCardinals OT · starterThu 9:07 PM ETWilliams (knee) did not participate at Arizona's practice Thursday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.Pinnacle has the Cardinals +8.5, unchanged since the app picked this up 16h after it was posted. It may have moved on the news before that; check the line chart.
- QuestionableMax MeltonCardinals CB · starterThu 7:38 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Cardinals +8.5: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableErnest Jones IVSeahawks LB · starterThu 7:33 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Seahawks -8.5: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableQuenton NelsonSeahawks G · starterWed 9:35 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Seahawks -8.5: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableMichael WilsonCardinals WR · starterWed 5:35 PM ETWilson (ribs) wore a yellow non-contact jersey at Wednesday's practice, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.Pinnacle still has the Cardinals +8.5: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableCharles CrossSeahawks OT · starterTue 8:03 AM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Seahawks -11 at the news, now -8.5 (moved 2.5 against them).
- QuestionableRashid ShaheedSeahawks WR · starterTue 8:03 AM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Seahawks -11 at the news, now -8.5 (moved 2.5 against them).
- QuestionableLeonard WilliamsSeahawks DT · starterMon 10:36 PM ETWilliams (shoulder) has a stinger and is questionable to return to Monday's game against the Bears.No Pinnacle spread yet.
- QuestionableUchenna NwosuSeahawks LB · starterMon 7:16 PM ETNwosu (ankle) is inactive for Monday's clash with the Bears, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.Pinnacle had the Seahawks -11 when the app picked this up (13h after it was posted), now -8.5 (moved 2.5 against them).
- QuestionableJeremiyah LoveCardinals RB · starterMon 4:48 PM ETHead coach Mike LaFleur said Monday that Love suffered a "new" ankle injury during Sunday's overtime win at Dallas, and that he'll have an update on the running back later this week, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports.No Pinnacle spread yet.
- OutWalter Nolen IIICardinals DT · starterMon 1:31 PM EToutNo Pinnacle spread yet.
- OutJon Gaines IICardinals G · starterMon 1:31 PM EToutNo Pinnacle spread yet.
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Lumen Field
Injuries
Cardinals
- RB Bam Knight · concussion
- T Jayden Williams · knee
- G Jon Gaines II · ankle
- G Isaiah Adams · ankle
- DT Walter Nolen · ankle
- CB Max Melton · knee
Seahawks
- QB Sam Darnold · quadricep
- WR Rashid Shaheed · knee
- T Charles Cross · ankle
- G Quenton Nelson · knee
- DT Leonard Williams · stinger
- DT Brandon Pili · back
- LB Uchenna Nwosu · ankle
- LB Connor O'Toole · foot
Official NFL injury report (via nflverse, updated daily). Checked Sun 6:25 PM ET.