SharpstieriGreen Bay PackersatNew England Patriots
- The Packers won (they closed at +155 on the moneyline).
- Against the closing spread, the Packers covered +3.
- 72 total points against a closing total of 44.5: the over hit.
Sharp signals point to the Patriots: Circa money. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read before the start
- Pinnacle had Patriots -2.5 on Sun, Nov 1. It's now -3, half a point toward the Patriots, onto the key number 3.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 71% of spread bets and 78% of the money are on the Patriots.
- At Circa, where pros bet, only 52% of bets but 81% of the money is on the Patriots: fewer, bigger bets.
- The sharpest moment: around Sat, Nov 7, 6:28 PM ET, Pinnacle and 2 other books moved the total the same way within an hour. That's a steam move, usually big money hitting at once.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $3.9M traded on Kalshi), the Packers are +145 to +164 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +155 and your best is +155.
- The total went 47.5 → 44.5 (toward the under).
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 5 moves
First seen at your books: Patriots -2.5 / Patriots -3 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: Patriots -3 (+100)
Pinnacle first seen: Patriots -2.5 (-108)
Show 2 earlier moves
Circa Patriots -3 → Patriots -2.5, toward the Packers
Your books right then: best Packers +3 (-118) at Caesars, still up for 1h 46m (until Mon, 11/2, 11:52 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Patriots, so this move went against the public.
Circa Patriots -2.5 → Patriots -3, toward the Patriots
Your books right then: best Patriots -2.5 (-122) at FanDuel, still up for 34 min (until Mon, 11/2, 11:52 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Patriots.
Circa Patriots -3 → Patriots -2.5, toward the Packers
Your books right then: best Packers +3 (-115) at BetRivers, still up for 5h (until Tue, 11/3, 1:40 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 73% on the Patriots, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Patriots -2.5 → Patriots -3, toward the Patriots
Your books right then: best Patriots -3 (-110) at FanDuel, still up for 5 days (until Sun, 11/8, 3:18 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 73% on the Patriots.
Circa Patriots -2.5 → Patriots -3, toward the Patriots
Your books right then: best Patriots -3 (-110) at FanDuel, still up for 5 days (until Sun, 11/8, 3:18 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Patriots.
Pinnacle Patriots -3 (-117) · Circa Patriots -3 (-120)
Best Patriots at your books: Patriots -3 (-118) at BetRivers
Best Packers at your books: Packers +3.5 (-120) at BetMGM
- Best Patriots all week: Patriots -2.5 (-118) at BetMGM, Tue, 11/3, 8:26 AM to Tue, 11/3, 9:20 AM
- Best Packers all week: Packers +3.5 (-120) at BetMGM, Sun, 11/8, 3:13 PM (still up)
Total · 6 moves
First seen at your books: 46.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: 47 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 47.5 (-107)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 46.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Show 3 earlier moves
Pinnacle 47.5 → 46.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 47 (-108) at BetRivers, still up for 13h 47m (until Tue, 11/3, 1:40 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 60% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Circa 47 → 46, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 47 (-107) at BetRivers, still up for 1 min (until Wed, 11/4, 5:13 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 78% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle 46.5 → 45.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 46.5 (-118) at FanDuel, still up for 3h 30m (until Thu, 11/5, 9:43 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 78% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Circa 46 → 44.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 45.5 (-105) at FanDuel, still up for 8 min (until Thu, 11/5, 12:38 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 77% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle 45.5 → 44.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-108) at BetMGM, still up for 1h 16m (until Sat, 11/7, 7:52 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 79% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Circa 44.5 → 45, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up for 1h 1m (until Sun, 11/8, 4:03 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Over.
Pinnacle 44.5 (-112) · Circa 45 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 44.5 (-112) at Caesars
Best Under at your books: Under 45 (-110) at BetMGM
- Best Over all week: Over 44.5 (-112) at BetRivers, Sat, 11/7, 6:28 PM to Sun, 11/8, 7:59 AM
- Best Under all week: Under 47.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, Tue, 11/3, 12:08 PM to Tue, 11/3, 12:10 PM
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Packers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +3+106 | -3-117 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/1 · not the opener | +2.5-104 | -2.5-108 |
| ExchangesReference only · $2.6M traded on Kalshi | +3.5-115Kalshi +3.5 -121 · Novig +3.5 -113 · Matchbook +3.5 -115 · SX Bet +3.5 -110 · Polymarket +3.5 -119 · ProphetX +3 +111 · Betfair +3.5 -118 | -3.5+103Kalshi -3.5 +101 · Novig -3.5 +111 · Matchbook -3.5 -100 · SX Bet -3.5 +106 · Polymarket -3.5 +103 · ProphetX -3 -120 · Betfair -3.5 -101 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +3+100since Sun 8:22 AM | -3-120since Sun 8:22 AM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +3+100opened +3 -105 | -3-120opened -3 -115 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +2.5 +100 | opened -2.5 -122 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened +3 -112 | opened -3 -107 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +2.5 -108 | opened -2.5 -110 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened +2.5 -105 | opened -2.5 -117 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +2.5 -110 | opened -2.5 -110 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened +2.5 -105 | opened -2.5 -117 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:20 PM
Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:20 PM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 4:20 PM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
1 more situation apply, all probably noise
- Probably noisePackers have 3+ more days of rest than their opponent. Teams in this spot are 720-693-32 ATS (51% cover); since 2018: 255-245-9.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 1999. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
Referee: Alex Kemp
Since 2018, in 136 games: overs 67-66-3 (50%), home teams 68-66-2 ATS (51%). Probably noise
Crew assignment from Football Zebras, published midweek.
Injury news
Starters on either team, from ESPN's injury feed (checked every 10 minutes), newest first, with how Pinnacle's line has reacted since each update.
- QuestionableMarcus JonesPatriots CB · starterThu 4:54 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Patriots -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableKeisean NixonPackers CB · starterWed 5:00 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Packers +3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableAaron BanksPackers G · starterWed 4:59 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Packers +3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableDre'Mont JonesPatriots DE · starterWed 4:58 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Patriots -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableMorgan MosesPatriots OT · starterWed 4:56 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Patriots -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableCarlton Davis IIIPatriots CB · starterWed 4:56 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Patriots -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableKevin ByardPatriots S · starterWed 4:55 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Patriots -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableChristian BarmorePatriots DT · starterWed 4:55 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Patriots -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
- QuestionableHunter HenryPatriots TE · starterTue 10:14 AM ETPatriots head coach Mike Vrabel said Monday that he had no update on Henry's (foot) status heading into Sunday's game against the Packers, Karen Guregian of MassLive.com reports. "I don't have any expectations yet," Vrabel said of Henry. "It's kind of how he responds here. He wasn't able to finish the [Week 8] game. So we'll see where he is, and I know Hunter will do everything he can to get back to help us."Pinnacle had the Patriots -2.5 at the news, now -3 (moved 0.5 toward them).
- QuestionableSean RhyanPackers G · starterTue 8:03 AM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Packers +2.5 at the news, now +3 (moved 0.5 against them).
- QuestionableTravis GloverPackers OT · starterTue 8:03 AM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Packers +2.5 at the news, now +3 (moved 0.5 against them).
- QuestionableZaire FranklinPackers LB · starterTue 8:03 AM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Packers +2.5 at the news, now +3 (moved 0.5 against them).
- QuestionableChristian WatsonPackers WR · starterMon 3:13 PM ETPackers passing game coordinator Jason Vrable said Monday that Watson (ribs) is sore but "doing great" Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports.Pinnacle had the Packers +2.5 at the news, now +3 (moved 0.5 against them).
- OutA.J. BrownPatriots WR · starterMon 11:43 AM ETWhen asked whether Brown (ankle/knee) might practice at some point this week, coach Mike Vrabel said Monday "we'll see," Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports.Pinnacle had the Patriots -2.5 at the news, now -3 (moved 0.5 toward them).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Gillette Stadium
Injuries
Packers
- TE Josh Whyle · concussion
- G Travis Glover · knee
- C Sean Rhyan · ankle
- LB Zaire Franklin · shin
- LB Micah Parsons · knee
- RB Chris Brooks · ankle
- RB MarShawn Lloyd · knee
- CB Keisean Nixon · groin
Patriots
- RB TreVeyon Henderson · illness
- WR A.J. Brown · ankle
- G Greg Van Roten · hamstring
- WR Mack Hollins · calf
- TE Hunter Henry · foot
- T Morgan Moses · foot
- CB Carlton Davis III · neck
- S Kevin Byard · chest
- S Brenden Schooler · hamstring
Official NFL injury report (via nflverse, updated daily). Checked Sun 6:25 PM ET.