Tampa Bay BuccaneersatChicago Bears
- The Bears won (they closed at -263 on the moneyline).
- Against the closing spread, the Buccaneers covered +6.
- 51 total points against a closing total of 47.5: the over hit.
Sharp signals point to the Buccaneers: Circa money. BetMGM has Buccaneers +6.5 (-105), worth about +1.3% vs the sharp price.
The read before the start
- Pinnacle had Bears -6.5 on Mon, Nov 2. It's now -6, half a point toward the Buccaneers.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 78% of spread bets and 79% of the money are on the Bears.
- At Circa, where pros bet, only 21% of bets but 60% of the money is on the Buccaneers: fewer, bigger bets.
- BetMGM has Buccaneers +6.5 (-105) vs Pinnacle's +6: half a point better. Counting the juice, it's worth about +1.3% vs the sharp price.
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $7.9M traded on Kalshi), the Buccaneers are +228 to +251 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +229 and your best is +240.
- The total went 46.5 → 47.5 (toward the over).
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 45 moves
First seen at your books: Bears -6.5 / Bears -6 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: Bears -6 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: Bears -6.5 (-106)
Show 42 earlier moves
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -5.5, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6 (-108) at BetRivers, still up for 16h 16m (until Mon, 11/2, 5:24 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 60% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -5.5 → Bears -4, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +5.5 (-106) at Caesars, still up for 27h 50m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 63% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -4 → Bears -4.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 3h 42m (until Mon, 11/2, 11:42 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 63% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -4.5 → Bears -6, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-114) at Caesars, still up for 12h 50m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 73% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -6 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 33h 32m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 32h 42m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -6 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 32h 24m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 32h 22m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -6 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 32h 20m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 31h 38m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -6 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 31h 36m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 31h 32m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -6 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 31h 16m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 31h 2m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -6 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 27h 54m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 27h 42m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -6 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 26h 36m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 26h 20m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 26h 14m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 8h 30m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 8h 26m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 8h 20m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 8h 16m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 7h 14m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 7h 10m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 7h 4m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 7h 2m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 6h 14m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 6h 12m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 3h 20m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 3h 4m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 3h 2m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Bears -6.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up for 1h 14m (until Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-110) at theScore Bet, still up for 1h 22m (until Sun, 11/8, 1:34 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-120) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 81% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-110) at theScore Bet, still up for 20 min (until Sun, 11/8, 1:34 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-120) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 4 min (until Sun, 11/8, 1:50 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-120) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 49 min (until Sun, 11/8, 9:11 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 80% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -6, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-120) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 79% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -5.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 47 min (until Sun, 11/8, 10:57 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 77% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -14.5 → Bears -5.5, toward the Buccaneers
Your books right then: best Buccaneers +6.5 (-120) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 77% on the Bears, so this move went against the public.
Circa Bears -5.5 → Bears -6, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -6 (-110) at theScore Bet, still up for 15 min (until Sun, 11/8, 7:51 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 78% on the Bears.
Circa Bears -6 → Bears -14.5, toward the Bears
Your books right then: best Bears -6 (-114) at BetRivers, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 78% on the Bears.
Pinnacle Bears -6 (-106) · Circa Bears -14.5 (+270)
Best Bears at your books: Bears -6 (-110) at theScore Bet
Best Buccaneers at your books: Buccaneers +6.5 (-105) at BetMGM
- Best Bears all week: Bears -5 (-108 to -110) at BetMGM, Mon, 11/2, 5:41 PM to Mon, 11/2, 11:42 PM
- Best Buccaneers all week: Buccaneers +6.5 (-114) at Caesars, Sun, 11/8, 8:17 PM (still up)
Total · 9 moves
First seen at your books: 48.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Circa first seen: 49 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 46.5 (-108)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 48.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Show 6 earlier moves
Circa 49 → 48, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 47.5 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 20h (until Mon, 11/2, 5:24 PM).
Circa 48 → 47, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 47.5 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 18h 58m (until Mon, 11/2, 5:24 PM).
Circa 47 → 46.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 47 (-108) at Caesars, still up for 12h 50m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 50% on the Over.
Circa 46.5 → 47.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 46.5 (-112) at BetRivers, still up for 6 min (until Tue, 11/3, 8:04 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Over.
Pinnacle 46.5 → 47.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 47.5 (-105) at BetMGM, still up for 1h 30m (until Wed, 11/4, 2:22 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 93% on the Over.
Circa 47.5 → 40.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 48.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 19h 16m (until Sat, 11/7, 2:44 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 71% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Circa 40.5 → 47.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 47.5 (-106) at Caesars, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 71% on the Over.
Pinnacle 47.5 → 48.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 47.5 (-106) at Caesars, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 70% on the Over.
Pinnacle 48.5 → 47.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 48.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, still up for 3h 56m (until Sun, 11/8, 4:04 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 70% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle 47.5 (-108) · Circa 47.5 (-115)
Best Over at your books: Over 47.5 (-105) at theScore Bet
Best Under at your books: Under 47.5 (-109) at BetRivers
- Best Over all week: Over 46.5 (-110 to -112) at BetMGM, Tue, 11/3, 8:28 AM to Tue, 11/3, 7:30 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 48.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, Sat, 11/7, 11:22 PM to Sun, 11/8, 4:04 AM
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Buccaneers | Bears |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +6-104 | -6-106 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Mon, 11/2 · not the opener | +6.5-106 | -6.5-106 |
| ExchangesReference only · $12.3M traded on Kalshi | +6.5-111Kalshi +6.5 -116 · Novig +6.5 -106 · Matchbook +6.5 -111 · SX Bet +6.5 -108 · Polymarket +6.5 -114 · ProphetX +6.5 -108 · Betfair +6.5 -113 | -6.5-100Kalshi -6.5 -103 · Novig -6.5 +104 · Matchbook -6.5 -100 · SX Bet -6.5 +104 · Polymarket -6.5 -101 · ProphetX -6.5 -100 · Betfair -6.5 -101 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +14.5-325since Sun 8:00 PM | -14.5+270since Sun 8:00 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +6.5-105opened +6 -110 | -6.5-115opened -6 -110 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +6.5 -110 | check the app · unchanged 25 h |
| CaesarsYour book | opened +6 -110 | opened -6 -110 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +6 -108 | opened -6 -110 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened +6.5 -108 | opened -6.5 -113 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +6 -105 | opened -6 -115 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened +6.5 -108 | opened -6.5 -113 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 8:10 PM
Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 8:19 PM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 8:19 PM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
4 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseBears have won 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 1030-1022-46 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 342-339-11.
- Probably noiseBears are off a win by 17+. Teams in this spot are 924-965-45 ATS (49% cover); since 2018: 288-284-9.
- Probably noiseBears are a primetime favorite. Teams in this spot are 685-668-39 ATS (51% cover); since 2018: 241-273-12.
- Probably noiseBuccaneers are a primetime underdog. Teams in this spot are 668-685-39 ATS (49% cover); since 2018: 273-241-12.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 1999. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
Referee: Ron Torbert
Since 2018, in 107 games: overs 47-60 (44%), home teams 48-58-1 ATS (45%). Probably noise
Crew assignment from Football Zebras, published midweek.
Injury news
Starters on either team, from ESPN's injury feed (checked every 10 minutes), newest first, with how Pinnacle's line has reacted since each update.
- QuestionableTyrique Stevenson Sr.Bears CB · starterFri 3:02 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Bears -6.5 at the news, now -6 (moved 0.5 against them).
- QuestionableTristan WirfsBuccaneers OT · starterThu 4:02 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Buccaneers +6.5 at the news, now +6 (moved 0.5 toward them).
- QuestionableD'Marco JacksonBears LB · starterThu 3:44 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Bears -6.5 at the news, now -6 (moved 0.5 against them).
- QuestionableTykee SmithBuccaneers S · starterWed 9:30 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Buccaneers +6.5 at the news, now +6 (moved 0.5 toward them).
- QuestionableTheo BenedetBears OT · starterWed 9:27 PM ETquestionablePinnacle had the Bears -6.5 at the news, now -6 (moved 0.5 against them).
- DoubtfulGrady JarrettBears DE · starterMon 11:16 PM ETdoubtfulNo Pinnacle spread yet.
- OutYaya DiabyBuccaneers LB · starterMon 3:53 PM ETHead coach Todd Bowles said that Diaby (knee) has been diagnosed with an MCL sprain and won't be available for Sunday's game against the Bears, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports.No Pinnacle spread yet.
- OutEmeka EgbukaBuccaneers WR · starterMon 2:22 PM EToutNo Pinnacle spread yet.
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Soldier Field
Injuries
Buccaneers
- LB Yaya Diaby · knee
- WR Emeka Egbuka · foot
Bears
- RB Kyle Monangai · thumb
- CB Tyrique Stevenson · thumb
- CB Malik Muhammad · toe
- RB Zavier Scott · wrist
Official NFL injury report (via nflverse, updated daily). Checked Sun 7:25 PM ET.