Buffalo BillsatMinnesota Vikings

NFL · Mon 8:15 PM ET · November 9 · Prices refresh every 5 minutes (kickoff within a day), last 4 minutes ago

Too lateWhat to do

Too late: the sharp move on the Vikings already happened. Don't chase it.

Now: Vikings +3 (-102) at BetMGM (value −4.1%) · Pinnacle +3 (+101)

Last seen Thu 1:34 PM ET, 3.5 days ago: theScore Bet had Vikings +3.5 (-110). A price gone this long rarely comes back (about 1 time in 8 in last week's games), so don't wait for it.

Big money at Circa: 54% of the money on 32% of the bets (Circa is where pros bet).
No better price right now: once the juice is counted, none of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price on the Vikings (Pinnacle: +3), so you'd be paying the same as everyone who waited, or more.

If you still want it: Only bet it if a book shows Vikings +3 at +110 or better or Vikings +3.5 at -110 before kickoff.

Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.

Too lateWhat to do · total

Too late: the sharp move on the under already happened. Don't chase it.

Now: Under 44 (-108) at BetMGM (value −2.7%) · Pinnacle Under 44 (-109)

Last seen Thu 10:20 PM ET, 2.5 days ago: BetRivers had Under 45 (-109). A price gone this long rarely comes back (about 1 time in 8 in last week's games), so don't wait for it.

Reverse line move: 74% of bets are on the over, but Pinnacle moved the total down (46.5 → 44).
Big money at Circa: 95% of the money on the under with 50% of the bets (Circa is where pros bet).
Steam move: Pinnacle and 3 other books jumped the total down within an hour.
Pinnacle's total moved 2.5 down since it opened.
No better price right now: once the juice is counted, none of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price on the under by the +1.5% totals need.

If you still want it: Only bet it if a book shows Under 44 at +102 or better or Under 45 at -110 before kickoff.

Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.

Bottom line

Sharp signals point to the Vikings: Circa money. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.

The read

The spread hasn't moved. Pinnacle has had Bills -3 since we started tracking it (Sun, Nov 1).
At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 78% of spread bets and 83% of the money are on the Bills.
At Circa, where pros bet, only 32% of bets but 54% of the money is on the Vikings: fewer, bigger bets.
The sharpest moment: around Tue, Nov 3, 8:00 PM ET, Pinnacle and 3 other books moved the total the same way within an hour. That's a steam move, usually big money hitting at once.
None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
On the exchanges (reference only, about $877K traded on Kalshi), the Vikings are +145 to +161 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +151 and your best is +146.
The total went 46.5 → 44 (toward the under).
Quarterback Kyler Murray is out for the Vikings.

Deep dive in Claude

Copies a ready-made request plus everything this page knows (every book's prices and moves, splits, injuries, weather, trends and the app's call). Paste it into the Claude app for a researched preview, a final-score prediction and the betting angle, fact-checked. Your Claude subscription covers it.

Open Claude

Line timeline

Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.

Spread · 3 moves

Tue, 10/27, 3:56 PM
First seen at your books: Vikings +2.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Sun, 11/1, 8:13 PM
Pinnacle first seen: Vikings +3 (-111)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from Vikings +2.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Sun, 11/1, 9:24 PM
Circa first seen: Vikings +2.5 (-105)

Mon, 11/2, 2:50 PM
Circa Vikings +2.5 → Vikings +3, toward the Bills
Your books right then: best Bills -3 (-103) at Caesars, still up for 30h 40m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
Mon, 11/2, 3:08 PM
Circa Vikings +3 → Vikings +3.5, toward the Bills
Your books right then: best Bills -3 (-103) at Caesars, still up for 30h 22m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
Thu, 11/5, 2:30 PM
Circa Vikings +3.5 → Vikings +3, toward the Vikings
Your books right then: best Vikings +3.5 (-115) at BetRivers, still up for 36 min (until Thu, 11/5, 3:06 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 65% on the Bills, so this move went against the public.
Now
Pinnacle Vikings +3 (+101) · Circa Vikings +3 (-105)
Best Vikings at your books: Vikings +3 (-102) at BetMGM
Best Bills at your books: Bills -3 (-114) at BetRivers

Best Vikings all week: Vikings +3.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, Sat, 11/7, 1:48 AM to Sat, 11/7, 1:50 AM
Best Bills all week: Bills -2.5 (-141) at BetRivers, Thu, 11/5, 11:10 AM to Thu, 11/5, 11:12 AM

Total · 39 moves

Tue, 10/27, 3:56 PM
First seen at your books: 48.5 / 47.5 / 48 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, Bally Bet)
Sun, 11/1, 8:13 PM
Pinnacle first seen: 46.5 (-106)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 48.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Sun, 11/1, 9:24 PM
Circa first seen: 46 (-110)

Show 36 earlier moves

Mon, 11/2, 3:08 PM
Circa 46 → 45.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 46.5 (-105) at theScore Bet, still up for 19h 40m (until Tue, 11/3, 10:48 AM).
Tue, 11/3, 8:00 PM
Pinnacle 46.5 → 45.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 46.5 (-107) at Caesars, still up for 1h 30m (until Tue, 11/3, 9:30 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 78% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Thu, 11/5, 1:38 PM
Circa 45.5 → 45, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 45.5 (-110) at BetRivers, still up for 20 min (until Thu, 11/5, 1:58 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 82% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Thu, 11/5, 5:02 PM
Pinnacle 45.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 45 (-108) at BetRivers, still up for 5h 18m (until Thu, 11/5, 10:20 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Fri, 11/6, 11:22 AM
Circa 45 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 45 (-109) at BetRivers, still up for 1 min (until Fri, 11/6, 11:23 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 86% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 2:36 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 73% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 2:38 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 73% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 2:46 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 3:06 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 3:10 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 3:30 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 3:32 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 3:46 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 4:18 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 4:22 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 4:26 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 4:54 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 4:56 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 5:02 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 5:06 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 5:40 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 5:42 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 6:18 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 6:20 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 6:40 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 6:42 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 6:56 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 6:58 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 7:06 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 7:10 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 7:14 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 7:16 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 7:20 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 7:22 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 7:32 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 7:34 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.

Sun, 11/8, 8:18 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 73% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Sun, 11/8, 9:28 PM
Circa 44 → 51.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over.
Sun, 11/8, 9:30 PM
Circa 51.5 → 44, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 74% on the Over, so this move went against the public.
Now
Pinnacle 44 (-105) · Circa 44 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 43.5 (-120) at theScore Bet
Best Under at your books: Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Best Over all week: Over 43.5 (-115 to -120) at theScore Bet, Sat, 11/7, 2:48 PM (still up)
Best Under all week: Under 48.5 (-105 to -118) at FanDuel, Tue, 10/27, 3:56 PM to Wed, 10/28, 2:23 AM

How the line moved

Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.

Pinnacle (sharp)Kalshi (exchange, since Sep 24)FanDuelCaesarsBetMGMBetRiverstheScore BetBally BetKey numbers

Book	Bills	Vikings
PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here	-3-114	+3+101
PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/1 · not the opener	-3+100	+3-111
ExchangesReference only · $410K traded on Kalshi	-3-110Kalshi -3.5 +109 · Novig -3.5 +117 · Matchbook -3 -113 · SX Bet -3 -107 · Polymarket -3.5 +107 · ProphetX -3 -110 · Betfair -3 -113	+3-101Kalshi +3.5 -131 · Novig +3.5 -117 · Matchbook +3 -102 · SX Bet +3 +103 · Polymarket +3.5 -129 · ProphetX +3 -101 · Betfair +3 -101
CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY	-3-115since Thu 2:30 PM	+3-105since Thu 2:30 PM
DraftKingsThe public's book · view only	-3-120opened -2.5 -110	+3+100opened +2.5 -110
FanDuelYour book	opened -2.5 -110	opened +2.5 -110
CaesarsYour book	opened -2.5 -109	opened +2.5 -109
BetMGMYour book	opened -3 -105	opened +3 -112
BetRiversYour book	opened -2.5 -109	opened +2.5 -112
theScore BetYour book	opened -2.5 +100	opened +2.5 -120
Bally BetYour book	opened -2.5 -109	opened +2.5 -112

Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.

FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, BetRivers, theScore Bet and Bally Bet, every alternate line they offer.

Check a boost

Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.

LineBook

Boosted odds

Money vs tickets · Spread

Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.

Sharp read from the line

Pinnacle hasn't moved much yet, so there's no sharp lean in the price.

DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 PM

BillsVikings

% of bets

78%22%

% of money

83%17%

Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 10:30 PM

BillsVikings

% of bets

68%32%

% of money

46%54%

BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 10:20 PM

BillsVikings

% of bets

78%22%

% of money

Not published by this book

Trends & officials

How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.

None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.

6 more situations apply, all probably noise

Probably noise
Vikings are a home underdog. Teams in this spot are 1228-1211-69 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 440-426-19.
Probably noise
Bills are a road favorite. Teams in this spot are 1211-1228-69 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 426-440-19.
Probably noise
Bills have won 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 1030-1022-46 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 342-339-11.
Probably noise
Bills are off a win by 17+. Teams in this spot are 924-965-45 ATS (49% cover); since 2018: 288-284-9.
Probably noise
Vikings are a primetime underdog. Teams in this spot are 668-685-39 ATS (49% cover); since 2018: 273-241-12.
Probably noise
Bills are a primetime favorite. Teams in this spot are 685-668-39 ATS (51% cover); since 2018: 241-273-12.

ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 1999. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.

Referee: Carl Cheffers

Since 2018, in 137 games: overs 68-69 (50%), home teams 74-60-3 ATS (55%). Probably noise

Crew assignment from Football Zebras, published midweek.

Injury news

Starters on either team, from ESPN's injury feed (checked every 10 minutes), newest first, with how Pinnacle's line has reacted since each update.

QuestionableKyler MurrayVikings QB · starterMon 2:57 PM ETMurray (hamstring), who is dealing with a sore hamstring, is undergoing a full evaluation to determine the extent of the issue, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports.Pinnacle still has the Vikings +3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
QuestionableAndrew Van GinkelVikings LB · starterThu 5:31 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Vikings +3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
QuestionableIsaiah RodgersVikings CB · starterThu 5:31 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Vikings +3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
QuestionableDion DawkinsBills OT · starterThu 5:13 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Bills -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
QuestionableAlec AndersonBills OT · starterThu 5:12 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Bills -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
QuestionableDalton KincaidBills TE · starterThu 5:03 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Bills -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
QuestionableDJ MooreBills WR · starterThu 1:49 PM ETMoore (knee) is line to practice in some capacity Thursday, Sal Capaccio of WGR Sports Radio 550 Buffalo reports.Pinnacle still has the Bills -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
QuestionableDee AlfordBills CB · starterTue 8:03 AM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Bills -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
QuestionableChristian DarrisawVikings OT · starterMon 3:04 PM ETquestionablePinnacle still has the Vikings +3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
OutSpencer BrownBills OT · starterMon 1:47 PM EToutPinnacle still has the Bills -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.
SuspensionC.J. Gardner-JohnsonBills S · starterSun 11:01 PM ETreserve-susPinnacle still has the Bills -3: the line hasn't reacted yet.

Game context

Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.

Weather at kickoff

U.S. Bank Stadium

Indoors. Weather won't matter.

Injuries

Bills

Out

WR Josh Palmer · hamstring

Questionable

WR Tyrell Shavers · knee
T Dion Dawkins · rib
G Alec Anderson · ankle
DT Greg Gaines · calf
CB Jordan Hancock · hamstring

Missed practice, no game status yet

DE Ed Oliver · knee

Vikings

Out

QB Kyler Murray · hamstring
RB Demond Claiborne · knee
WR Jauan Jennings · calf

Questionable

S Theo Jackson · quadricep
S Jay Ward · knee

Missed practice, no game status yet

T Christian Darrisaw · shoulder

Official NFL injury report (via nflverse, updated daily). Checked Sun 7:25 PM ET.

BUFBuffalo BillsatMINMinnesota Vikings

The read

Deep dive in Claude

Line timeline

How the line moved

Check a boost

Money vs tickets · Spread

DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 PM

Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 10:30 PM

BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 10:20 PM

Trends & officials

Referee: Carl Cheffers

Injury news

Game context

Weather at kickoff

Injuries

Bills

Vikings

Buffalo BillsatMinnesota Vikings