SharpstieriBuffalo BillsatNew York Jets
Pass for now: Pinnacle hasn't posted this game, so there's no sharp number to judge it against.
- Every call compares your books with Pinnacle, the book the pros bet at. Without its price there's no way to tell a good number from a bad one.
What would make it a bet: Pinnacle posting this game. It usually does a few days before kickoff; the app checks automatically.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.
Quiet game: the line hasn't moved much and no sharp money shows up.
The read
- The market went from Bills -7.5 to -8.5, but the price moved the other way, so the chance of covering -7.5 barely changed (under 1%). That's not a real move.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 73% of spread bets and 50% of the money are on the Bills.
- Pinnacle hasn't posted this game yet, so there's no sharp number to compare against.
- Shop around: a $100 bet on the Bills wins $20 at FanDuel vs $18 at Bally Bet.
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $21K traded on Kalshi), the Jets are +387 to +433 on the moneyline and your best is +410.
- The total hasn't moved from 51.5.
- Wind 17 mph (gusts to 28) around kickoff. Strong wind tends to hurt passing and kicking, one reason totals drop in games like this.
Deep dive in Claude
Copies a ready-made request plus everything this page knows (every book's prices and moves, splits, injuries, weather, trends and the app's call). Paste it into the Claude app for a researched preview, a final-score prediction and the betting angle, fact-checked. Your Claude subscription covers it.
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 1 move
First seen at your books: Jets +7.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: Jets +7.5 (-110)
Circa Jets +7.5 → Jets +8.5, toward the Bills
Your books right then: best Bills -8.5 (-105) at BetMGM, still up for 1h 28m (until Sun, 11/8, 10:44 PM).
Pinnacle not posted · Circa Jets +8.5 (-110)
Best Jets at your books: Jets +8.5 (-112) at Caesars
Best Bills at your books: Bills -8 (-115) at theScore Bet
- Best Jets all week: Jets +8.5 (-110) at theScore Bet, Sun, 11/8, 7:29 PM to Mon, 11/9, 12:42 AM
- Best Bills all week: Bills -7.5 (-110) at BetRivers, Wed, 11/4, 8:22 AM to Wed, 11/4, 2:22 PM
Total · 0 moves
First seen at your books: 51.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: 51.5 (-110)
Pinnacle not posted · Circa 51.5 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 51 (-109) at BetRivers
Best Under at your books: Under 51.5 (-109) at Caesars
- Best Over all week: Over 49.5 (-110 to -114) at Caesars, Sun, 11/8, 5:52 PM to Sun, 11/8, 6:29 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 51.5 (-108 to -110) at BetMGM, Sun, 11/8, 10:44 PM (still up)
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Bills | Jets |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price · can't bet here | Not posted yet | |
| ExchangesReference only | -8.5-114Kalshi -8.5 -112 · Novig -8.5 -104 · SX Bet -8.5 -116 · Polymarket -8.5 -114 · ProphetX -8.5 -114 | +8.5-119Kalshi +8.5 -121 · Novig +8.5 -111 · SX Bet +8.5 -116 · Polymarket +8.5 -119 · ProphetX +8.5 -130 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | -8.5-110since Sun 9:16 PM | +8.5-110since Sun 9:16 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | -8.5-110opened -7.5 -110 | +8.5-110opened +7.5 -110 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened -7.5 -115 | opened +7.5 -105 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened -7.5 -114 | opened +7.5 -105 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened -8.5 -110 | opened +8.5 -108 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened -7.5 -110 | opened +7.5 -110 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened -8.5 -110 | opened +8.5 -110 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened -7.5 -110 | opened +7.5 -110 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Pinnacle has no price on this right now, so there's nothing to compare against.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:20 AM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:49 AM
Circa where pros bet
Not available for this game. Our splits provider only gets Circa's numbers for a few big games a week (this weekend, 2 of about 80 football games), so most games never show them. The DraftKings split plus the way Pinnacle's line moves is the read the app uses for the rest.
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
- LeansJets are an underdog in a division game. Teams in this spot are 1405-1288-75 ATS (52% cover); since 2018: 432-380-14.
6 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseJets are a home underdog. Teams in this spot are 1228-1211-69 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 440-426-19.
- Probably noiseBills are a road favorite. Teams in this spot are 1211-1228-69 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 426-440-19.
- Probably noiseBills have won 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 1030-1023-46 ATS (50% cover); since 2018: 342-340-11.
- Probably noiseBills are off a win by 17+. Teams in this spot are 924-966-45 ATS (49% cover); since 2018: 288-285-9.
- Probably noiseJets have lost 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 946-883-48 ATS (52% cover); since 2018: 312-276-20.
- Probably noiseJets are off a loss by 17+. Teams in this spot are 894-859-45 ATS (51% cover); since 2018: 271-267-8.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 1999. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
This week's referee isn't posted yet (college crews aren't published).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
MetLife Stadium
Injuries
Bills
This week's report isn't out yet. Teams file it during the week before the game.
Jets
This week's report isn't out yet. Teams file it during the week before the game.
Official NFL injury report (via nflverse, updated daily). Checked Mon 12:25 AM ET.