SharpstieriTampa Bay RaysatPhiladelphia Phillies
Pass for now: Pinnacle hasn't posted this game, so there's no sharp number to judge it against.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Check My Bets to see if you're beating the closing line.
Sharp signals point to the Phillies: big money at DraftKings.
The read
- The moneyline has barely moved. The market has the Phillies -162, a 59.3% chance to win.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 75% of moneyline bets and 42% of the money are on the Rays.
- Even at DraftKings, the Phillies have 58% of the money on only 25% of bets: bigger bettors are on them.
- Pinnacle hasn't posted this game yet, so there's no sharp number to compare against.
- Shop around: a $100 bet on the Phillies wins $65 at Caesars vs $62 at FanDuel.
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $5K traded on Kalshi), the Rays are +131 to +141 on the moneyline and your best is +136.
- The total hasn't moved from 6.5.
- Wind 13 mph (gusts to 28) around kickoff. Strong wind tends to hurt passing and kicking, one reason totals drop in games like this.
Ask Claude
Ask anything about this game: buying points, whether to wait, what a signal means.
Claude sees every price, split, the weather and injuries on this page, plus any screenshot you add (paste, drag in, or tap + Screenshot; up to 4 per conversation). It's a second opinion, not a guarantee. Each question costs a few cents.
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Rays | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price · can't bet here | Not posted yet | |
| ExchangesReference only · $5K traded on Kalshi | +135Kalshi +135 · Novig +135 · SX Bet +131 · Polymarket +141 | -141Kalshi -141 · Novig -150 · SX Bet -156 · Polymarket -141 |
| FanDuelYour book | ||
| CaesarsYour book | ||
| BetMGMYour book | ||
Best = the best price at your three books. ▲ / ▼ = better or worse than Pinnacle's sharp price (dollars won per $100 bet). Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Money vs tickets · Moneyline
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Circa (the sharp book) doesn't publish baseball splits, so DraftKings is the only money read here. For sharp signals in baseball, lean on how the line moves at Pinnacle.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Thu, Sep 24, 8:07 PM
Umpire
Who's calling balls and strikes, and how his games have played.
The plate umpire is usually posted a few hours before first pitch.
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at first pitch
Citizens Bank Park
Starting pitchers
Rays
Starter not announced yet.
Phillies
Starter not announced yet.
From MLB's probable pitchers, updated daily. A late scratch can move the line a lot.