SharpstieriUSC TrojansatIndiana Hoosiers
Pass: only a small lean to USC, not enough to bet.
- Big money at DraftKings: 75% of the money on 42% of the bets.
- Why that's a pass: one small signal is often noise. A call needs a few signals agreeing (like a reverse line move plus big money at Circa).
- No better price: every price at your three books is worse than Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted. That's normal most of the time: it's the book's cut (the red % in the price table).
What would make it a bet: A book falling behind a Pinnacle move, or sharp money showing up on one team. Both usually come in short bursts, and you'll get an alert when they do.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.
Sharp signals point to USC: big money at DraftKings. Exchanges lean further toward USC than Pinnacle does. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read
- The spread hasn't moved. Pinnacle has had Indiana -7.5 since we started tracking it (Sun, Nov 8).
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 58% of spread bets and 25% of the money are on Indiana.
- Even at DraftKings, USC have 75% of the money on only 42% of bets: bigger bettors are on them.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $148K traded on Kalshi), USC are +198 to +228 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +243 and your best is +230. Exchanges give USC a 30.7% chance vs Pinnacle's 26.7%.
- The total hasn't moved from 49.5.
Deep dive in Claude
Copies a ready-made request plus everything this page knows (every book's prices and moves, splits, injuries, weather, trends and the app's call). Paste it into the Claude app for a researched preview, a final-score prediction and the betting angle, fact-checked. Your Claude subscription covers it.
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 0 moves
First seen at your books: Indiana -7.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: Indiana -7.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: Indiana -7.5 (-104)
Pinnacle Indiana -7.5 (-104) · Circa Indiana -7.5 (-110)
Best Indiana at your books: Indiana -7.5 (+102) at FanDuel
Best USC at your books: USC +7.5 (-115) at BetMGM
- Best Indiana all week: Indiana -6.5 (-122) at FanDuel, Wed, 11/4, 6:38 PM to Thu, 11/5, 9:39 AM
- Best USC all week: USC +7.5 (-115) at BetMGM, Sun, 11/8, 4:36 PM (still up)
Total · 0 moves
First seen at your books: 48.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: 49.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 49.5 (-110)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 48.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle 49.5 (-110) · Circa 49.5 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 49.5 (+100) at BetRivers
Best Under at your books: Under 50.5 (-110) at theScore Bet
- Best Over all week: Over 48.5 (-115) at FanDuel, Wed, 11/4, 11:56 AM to Wed, 11/4, 12:06 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 50.5 (-110) at theScore Bet, Sun, 11/8, 7:02 PM (still up)
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | USC | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +7.5-113 | -7.5-104 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/8 · not the opener | +7.5-113 | -7.5-104 |
| ExchangesReference only · $6K traded on Kalshi | +7.5-131Kalshi +7.5 -131 · Novig +7.5 -120 · SX Bet +7.5 -133 · Polymarket +7.5 -124 · ProphetX +7.5 -133 | -7.5+102Kalshi -7.5 +105 · Novig -7.5 +102 · SX Bet -7.5 -101 · Polymarket -7.5 +103 · ProphetX -7.5 -100 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +7.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM | -7.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +7.5-115opened +7 -105 | -7.5-105opened -7 -115 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +7.5 -110 | opened -7.5 -110 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened +7.5 -118 | opened -7.5 -102 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +7 -105 | opened -7 -112 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened here | opened here |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +7.5 -120 | opened -7.5 +100 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened here | opened here |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 9:19 PM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:49 AM
Circa where pros bet
Not available for this game. Our splits provider only gets Circa's numbers for a few big games a week (this weekend, 2 of about 80 football games), so most games never show them. The DraftKings split plus the way Pinnacle's line moves is the read the app uses for the rest.
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
3 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseUSC are an underdog in a conference game. Teams in this spot are 1291-1229-43 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 740-718-27.
- Probably noiseIndiana are coming off a bye. Teams in this spot are 885-887-19 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 631-664-15.
- Probably noiseUSC are coming off a bye. Teams in this spot are 885-887-19 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 631-664-15.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 2022. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
This week's referee isn't posted yet (college crews aren't published).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Injuries
College teams don't publish injury reports in a reliable feed, so there's nothing trustworthy to show here.