SharpstieriMichigan WolverinesatOregon Ducks
Sharps are on Michigan, but no price at your books is worth it. Skip it.
Now: Michigan +11.5 (-112) at Bally Bet (value −1.1%) · Pinnacle +10.5 (-110)
Only before the sharp move: FanDuel had Michigan +11.5 (-106) (Sun 7:28 AM ET), but not since Pinnacle moved to +10.5 (Sun 8:02 PM ET); the best since was Michigan +11.5 (-112) at Bally Bet (−1.1%). It may not come back.
Close to fair For fun only: Michigan +11.5 (-112) at Bally Bet is −1.1% vs Pinnacle's fair price, roughly break-even. Not an edge; keep it small (no more than $25 to win).
- Big money at Circa: 96% of the money on 80% of the bets (Circa is where pros bet).
- Pinnacle's spread moved 1 point their way.
- No better price right now: once the juice is counted, none of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price on Michigan (Pinnacle: +10.5), so you'd be paying the same as everyone who waited, or more.
What it would take: It would take Michigan +11.5 at -107 or better or Michigan +12 at -110, or the moneyline at +403 or better, and that hasn't been offered since the sharp move. This isn't a forecast; lines rarely move back against sharp money. Alerts will tell you if it ever shows up.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.
Sharp signals point to Michigan: Circa money and the line moving 1 point their way. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read
- Pinnacle had Oregon -11.5 on Sun, Nov 8. It's now -10.5, 1 point toward Michigan.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 75% of spread bets are on Michigan.
- At Circa, where pros bet, only 80% of bets but 96% of the money is on Michigan: fewer, bigger bets.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $4K traded on Kalshi), Michigan are +318 to +388 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +336 and your best is +380.
- The total hasn't moved from 40.
- 68% chance of rain during the game.
Deep dive in Claude
Copies a ready-made request plus everything this page knows (every book's prices and moves, splits, injuries, weather, trends and the app's call). Paste it into the Claude app for a researched preview, a final-score prediction and the betting angle, fact-checked. Your Claude subscription covers it.
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 1 move
First seen at your books: Oregon -9.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: Oregon -11.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: Oregon -11.5 (-108)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from Oregon -9.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle Oregon -11.5 → Oregon -10.5, toward Michigan
Your books right then: best Michigan +11.5 (-112) at Bally Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 67% on Michigan.
Pinnacle Oregon -10.5 (-106) · Circa Oregon -11.5 (-110)
Best Oregon at your books: Oregon -10.5 (-105) at theScore Bet
Best Michigan at your books: Michigan +11.5 (-112) at Bally Bet
- Best Oregon all week: Oregon -9.5 (-110 to -118) at FanDuel, Sun, 11/8, 12:52 AM to Sun, 11/8, 1:16 AM
- Best Michigan all week: Michigan +11.5 (-113) at BetRivers, Sun, 11/8, 4:53 PM (still up)
Total · 0 moves
First seen at your books: 42.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: 40 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 40 (-110)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 42.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle 40 (-108) · Circa 40 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 39.5 (-110) at Caesars
Best Under at your books: Under 40.5 (-112) at Bally Bet
- Best Over all week: Over 39.5 (-110) at Caesars, Sun, 11/8, 8:10 PM (still up)
- Best Under all week: Under 42.5 (-115) at FanDuel, Sun, 11/8, 12:52 AM to Sun, 11/8, 1:00 AM
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Michigan | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +10.5-110 | -10.5-106 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/8 · not the opener | +11.5-108 | -11.5-108 |
| ExchangesReference only · $3K traded on Kalshi | +10.5-117Kalshi +10.5 -108 · Novig +10.5 -117 · SX Bet +10.5 -126 · Polymarket +10.5 -110 · ProphetX +10.5 -117 | -10.5-112Kalshi -10.5 -112 · Novig -10.5 -106 · SX Bet -10.5 -122 · Polymarket -10.5 -110 · ProphetX -10.5 -113 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +11.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM | -11.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +10.5-112opened +5.5 -110 | -10.5-108opened -5.5 -110 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +9.5 -110 | opened -9.5 -110 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened here | opened here |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +11 -110 | opened -11 -108 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened +10.5 -110 | opened -10.5 -113 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +10.5 -110 | check the app · unchanged 6 h |
| Bally BetYour book | opened +10.5 -109 | opened -10.5 -112 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:00 AM
Circa where pros bet · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:20 AM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:49 AM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
5 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseMichigan are an underdog in a conference game. Teams in this spot are 1291-1229-43 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 740-718-27.
- Probably noiseOregon are a double-digit favorite. Teams in this spot are 1034-1038-27 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 615-589-12.
- Probably noiseMichigan are a double-digit underdog. Teams in this spot are 1038-1034-27 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 589-615-12.
- Probably noiseMichigan are off an upset loss as a 7+ point favorite. Teams in this spot are 173-154-5 ATS (53% cover); since 2024: 105-80-2.
- Probably noiseOregon are off an upset win as a 7+ point underdog. Teams in this spot are 155-160-3 ATS (49% cover); since 2024: 89-92-1.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 2022. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
This week's referee isn't posted yet (college crews aren't published).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Autzen Stadium
Injuries
College teams don't publish injury reports in a reliable feed, so there's nothing trustworthy to show here.