SharpstieriTexas LonghornsatLSU Tigers
Early: Texas +4.5 (-113) at Bally Bet is a small edge 5 days out. A sharp waits: the sharp lines still move a lot this early. Check back within 5 days of the game; if it's still there, it'll be a Take it now and buzz your phone. Big early edges come as early-line alerts.
Now: Texas +4.5 (-113) at Bally Bet (value +2.6%) · Pinnacle +3.5 (-114)
- Price only: no clear sharp side on this game, but Bally Bet's price is worth about +2.6% vs Pinnacle's fair price (+3.5), counting the number and the juice. That's the edge by itself; price-only bets need +1.5% instead of +1%.
- Pinnacle's spread moved 1 point their way.
- Pinnacle's number is less reliable here (it's more than 4 days before kickoff, when Pinnacle takes small bets, and Pinnacle is charging a bigger cut than usual on this line, a sign of a thin market), so this needed a bigger edge, and it has one.
What to wait for: In your saved lines, gaps like this closed within 3 hours 43% of the time, the typical one lasted about 3 hours, and 14% lasted until kickoff. So you probably have a few hours, but any one can close in minutes, and waiting gains you nothing. Once Bally Bet matches Pinnacle, the edge is gone.
How much: Risk $75 to win $66 at -113, about 0.7 of a unit. Your unit is $100 to win. Amounts are rounded to $5 so your bets look like normal bets, not a formula. Bet size scales with the edge (quarter-Kelly, assuming a unit is about 1% of your betting money): bigger edge, bigger bet, up to 2 units when the sharps agree (1 for price only; baseball price-only bets are a quarter while unproven). Never raise it to win back losses.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.
Sharp signals point to Texas: the line moving 1 point their way. Bally Bet has Texas +4.5 (-113), worth about +2.6% vs the sharp price. Still not a bet right now: What to do above explains why.
The read
- Pinnacle had LSU -4.5 on Sun, Nov 8. It's now -3.5, 1 point toward Texas.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 86% of spread bets and 99% of the money are on Texas.
- At Circa, where pros bet, 52% of the money and 43% of bets are on Texas.
- Bally Bet has Texas +4.5 (-113) vs Pinnacle's +3.5: 1 point better. Counting the juice, it's worth about +2.6% vs the sharp price.
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $387K traded on Kalshi), Texas are +127 to +144 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +145 and your best is +146.
- The total hasn't moved from 46.
Deep dive in Claude
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Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 3 moves
First seen at your books: LSU -5.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: LSU -4.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: LSU -4.5 (-112)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from LSU -5.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Circa LSU -4.5 → LSU -4, toward Texas
Your books right then: best Texas +4.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up for 3h 37m (until Sun, 11/8, 11:53 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 86% on Texas.
Circa LSU -4 → LSU -3.5, toward Texas
Your books right then: best Texas +4.5 (-110) at theScore Bet, still up for 20 min (until Mon, 11/9, 12:18 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 86% on Texas.
Pinnacle LSU -4.5 → LSU -3.5, toward Texas
Your books right then: best Texas +4.5 (-110) at theScore Bet, still up for 16 min (until Mon, 11/9, 12:18 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 86% on Texas.
Pinnacle LSU -3.5 (-102) · Circa LSU -3.5 (-105)
Best LSU at your books: LSU -3.5 (-108) at BetMGM
Best Texas at your books: Texas +4.5 (-113) at Bally Bet
- Best LSU all week: LSU -3.5 (-110) at theScore Bet, Mon, 11/9, 12:18 AM (still up)
- Best Texas all week: Texas +6.5 (-110 to -120) at FanDuel, Fri, 11/6, 12:06 AM to Sat, 11/7, 7:15 PM
Total · 0 moves
First seen at your books: 47.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: 46 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 46 (-110)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 47.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle 46 (-109) · Circa 46 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 45.5 (-112) at Bally Bet
Best Under at your books: Under 46.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- Best Over all week: Over 45.5 (-110) at BetMGM, Sun, 11/8, 11:53 PM to Sun, 11/8, 11:58 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 47.5 (-115) at FanDuel, Thu, 11/5, 3:53 PM to Fri, 11/6, 7:28 PM
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Texas | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +3.5-114 | -3.5-102 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/8 · not the opener | +4.5-104 | -4.5-112 |
| ExchangesReference only · $14K traded on Kalshi | +3.5-121Kalshi +3.5 -121 · Novig +3.5 -106 · SX Bet +3.5 -130 · Polymarket +3.5 -119 · ProphetX +3.5 -128 | -3.5-104Kalshi -3.5 -103 · Novig -3.5 +100 · SX Bet -3.5 -118 · Polymarket -3.5 -105 · ProphetX -3.5 -104 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +3.5-115since Sun 11:58 PM | -3.5-105since Sun 11:58 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +3.5-110opened +5.5 -110 | -3.5-110opened -5.5 -110 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +5.5 -110 | opened -5.5 -110 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened +4 -112 | opened -4 -108 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +4.5 -110 | opened -4.5 -108 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened here | opened here |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +4.5 -110 | opened -4.5 -110 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened here | opened here |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:30 AM
Circa where pros bet · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:20 AM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
4 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseTexas are an underdog in a conference game. Teams in this spot are 1291-1229-43 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 740-718-27.
- Probably noiseLSU are off a loss by 17+. Teams in this spot are 727-717-21 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 432-428-12.
- Probably noiseTexas have won 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 583-577-20 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 334-336-6.
- Probably noiseTexas are on their second straight road game. Teams in this spot are 457-459-14 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 254-270-7.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 2022. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
This week's referee isn't posted yet (college crews aren't published).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Tiger Stadium (LA)
Injuries
College teams don't publish injury reports in a reliable feed, so there's nothing trustworthy to show here.