SharpstieriOregon State BeaversatBoise State Broncos
Pass: the better price doesn't hold up on a second look.
- theScore Bet has Boise State -10.5 (+100), worth about +3.5% vs Pinnacle's fair price, but it's held back: theScore Bet's price on this bet hasn't updated in 6 hours, even though theScore Bet has changed its other prices on this game since and Pinnacle has moved. It may be out of date, so it isn't the call; check theScore Bet's app, since it could still be there.
What would make it a bet: A better price that also passes the check above: worth +1.5% or more against Pinnacle, without the exchanges or the other books saying otherwise. You'll get an alert if that happens.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.
Quiet game: the line hasn't moved much and no sharp money shows up. Exchanges lean further toward Oregon State than Pinnacle does. theScore Bet has Boise State -10.5 (+100), worth about +3.5% vs the sharp price. Still not a bet right now: What to do above explains why.
The read
- The spread hasn't moved. Pinnacle has had Boise State -10.5 since we started tracking it (Sun, Nov 8).
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 67% of spread bets are on Boise State.
- theScore Bet has Boise State -10.5 (+100) vs Pinnacle's -10.5. Counting the juice, it's worth about +3.5% vs the sharp price.
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $5K traded on Kalshi), Oregon State are +330 to +355 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +345 and your best is +320. Exchanges give Oregon State a 21.8% chance vs Pinnacle's 19.6%.
- The total hasn't moved from 66.5.
Deep dive in Claude
Copies a ready-made request plus everything this page knows (every book's prices and moves, splits, injuries, weather, trends and the app's call). Paste it into the Claude app for a researched preview, a final-score prediction and the betting angle, fact-checked. Your Claude subscription covers it.
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 0 moves
First seen at your books: Boise State -5.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: Boise State -10.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: Boise State -10.5 (-108)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from Boise State -5.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle Boise State -10.5 (-116) · Circa Boise State -10.5 (-110)
Best Boise State at your books: Boise State -10 (-115) at BetRivers
Best Oregon State at your books: Oregon State +10.5 (-109) at Caesars
- Best Boise State all week: Boise State -5.5 (-110 to -122) at FanDuel, Thu, 11/5, 3:50 PM to Sat, 11/7, 8:58 AM
- Best Oregon State all week: Oregon State +10.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, Sun, 11/8, 6:52 PM (still up)
Total · 0 moves
First seen at your books: 61.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: 66.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 66.5 (-110)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 61.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle 66.5 (-110) · Circa 66.5 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 64.5 (-120) at Bally Bet
Best Under at your books: Under 66.5 (-110) at Caesars
- Best Over all week: Over 61.5 (-110) at FanDuel, Thu, 11/5, 3:50 PM to Thu, 11/5, 5:43 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 66.5 (-114) at FanDuel, Sun, 11/8, 11:48 PM (still up)
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Oregon State | Boise State |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +10.5-101 | -10.5-116 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/8 · not the opener | +10.5-108 | -10.5-108 |
| ExchangesReference only | +10.5-112Kalshi +10.5 -112 · Novig +10.5 -113 · SX Bet +8.5 +108 · Polymarket +10.5 -110 · ProphetX +10.5 -120 | -10.5-108Kalshi -10.5 -108 · Novig -10.5 +100 · SX Bet -10 -141 · Polymarket -10.5 -114 · ProphetX -10.5 -130 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +10.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM | -10.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +10.5-110opened +4.5 -105 | -10.5-110opened -4.5 -115 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +5.5 -110 | opened -5.5 -110 |
| CaesarsYour book | check the app · unchanged 10 h | opened -9.5 -110 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +9.5 -108 | opened -9.5 -110 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened here | opened here |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +8.5 -110 | check the app · unchanged 6 h |
| Bally BetYour book | opened here | opened here |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 9:10 PM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:49 AM
Circa where pros bet
Not available for this game. Our splits provider only gets Circa's numbers for a few big games a week (this weekend, 2 of about 80 football games), so most games never show them. The DraftKings split plus the way Pinnacle's line moves is the read the app uses for the rest.
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
6 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseOregon State are an underdog in a conference game. Teams in this spot are 1291-1229-43 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 740-718-27.
- Probably noiseBoise State are a double-digit favorite. Teams in this spot are 1034-1038-27 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 615-589-12.
- Probably noiseOregon State are a double-digit underdog. Teams in this spot are 1038-1034-27 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 589-615-12.
- Probably noiseBoise State are off a win by 17+. Teams in this spot are 936-917-37 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 563-547-19.
- Probably noiseOregon State are off a loss by 17+. Teams in this spot are 727-717-21 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 432-428-12.
- Probably noiseBoise State have won 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 583-577-20 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 334-336-6.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 2022. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
This week's referee isn't posted yet (college crews aren't published).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Albertsons Stadium
Injuries
College teams don't publish injury reports in a reliable feed, so there's nothing trustworthy to show here.