SharpstieriArkansas RazorbacksatVirginia Cavaliers
- Virginia won (they closed at -185 on the moneyline).
- Against the closing spread, Virginia covered -4.5.
- 163 total points against a closing total of 162: the over hit.
Sharp signals point to Virginia: a reverse line move and the line moving 2.5 points their way. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read before the start
- Pinnacle had Virginia -2 on Sat, Nov 7. It's now -4.5, 2.5 points toward Virginia.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 67% of spread bets and 78% of the money are on Arkansas.
- At Circa, where pros bet, 64% of the money and 65% of bets are on Arkansas.
- That's reverse line movement: most bets are on Arkansas, but the line moved toward Virginia. Books move against the crowd when respected money hits the other side.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- The total hasn't moved from 162.
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 8 moves
First seen at your books: Virginia -1.5 / Virginia -2 / Virginia -2.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, theScore Bet, Bally Bet)
Pinnacle first seen: Virginia -2 (-109)
Circa first seen: Virginia -2 (-110)
Show 5 earlier moves
Circa Virginia -2 → Virginia -3, toward Virginia
Your books right then: best Virginia -1.5 (-120) at FanDuel, still up for 1 min (until Sat, 11/7, 10:33 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 50% on Virginia.
Pinnacle Virginia -2 → Virginia -3, toward Virginia
Your books right then: best Virginia -1.5 (-120) at Bally Bet, still up for 5h 26m (until Sun, 11/8, 4:09 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 50% on Virginia.
Circa Virginia -3 → Virginia -4, toward Virginia
Your books right then: best Virginia -3.5 (+100) at theScore Bet, still up for 23 min (until Sun, 11/8, 9:03 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 71% on Arkansas, so this move went against the public.
Circa Virginia -4 → Virginia -3.5, toward Arkansas
Your books right then: best Arkansas +3.5 (-114) at FanDuel, still up for 3h 4m (until Sun, 11/8, 12:04 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 63% on Arkansas.
Circa Virginia -3.5 → Virginia -3, toward Arkansas
Your books right then: best Arkansas +3.5 (-114) at FanDuel, still up for 2h 10m (until Sun, 11/8, 12:04 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 72% on Arkansas.
Circa Virginia -3 → Virginia -4, toward Virginia
Your books right then: best Virginia -2.5 (-121) at BetRivers, still up for 1h 9m (until Sun, 11/8, 12:47 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 65% on Arkansas, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Virginia -3 → Virginia -3.5, toward Virginia
Your books right then: best Virginia -2.5 (-121) at BetRivers, still up for 1h 4m (until Sun, 11/8, 12:47 PM).
DraftKings bets then: 65% on Arkansas, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Virginia -3.5 → Virginia -4.5, toward Virginia
Your books right then: best Virginia -3.5 (-120) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 68% on Arkansas, so this move went against the public.
Pinnacle Virginia -4.5 (-104) · Circa Virginia -4 (-110)
Best Virginia at your books: Virginia -3.5 (-120) at FanDuel
Best Arkansas at your books: Arkansas +4.5 (-110) at Caesars
- Best Virginia all week: Virginia -1.5 (-120) at FanDuel, Sat, 11/7, 2:59 PM to Sat, 11/7, 10:33 PM
- Best Arkansas all week: Arkansas +4.5 (-110) at Caesars, Sun, 11/8, 12:53 PM (still up)
Total · 8 moves
First seen at your books: 158.5 / 159.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetRivers, theScore Bet, Bally Bet)
Pinnacle first seen: 162 (-108)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 159.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Circa first seen: 162 (-110)
Show 5 earlier moves
Circa 162 → 162.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 161.5 (-115) at BetMGM, still up for 1h 13m (until Sun, 11/8, 9:53 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Under, so this move went against the public.
Circa 162.5 → 161, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 162.5 (-113) at Bally Bet, still up for 1h 35m (until Sun, 11/8, 11:29 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 83% on the Under.
Pinnacle 162 → 161, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 162.5 (-113) at Bally Bet, still up for 1h 26m (until Sun, 11/8, 11:29 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 78% on the Under.
Pinnacle 161 → 162, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 161.5 (-110) at BetMGM, still up for 1 min (until Sun, 11/8, 10:14 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Under, so this move went against the public.
Circa 161 → 162, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 161.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 75% on the Under, so this move went against the public.
Circa 162 → 161.5, toward the Under
Your books right then: best Under 162.5 (-110) at Caesars, still up for 10 min (until Sun, 11/8, 11:02 AM).
DraftKings bets then: 69% on the Under.
Circa 161.5 → 162, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 161.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 65% on the Under, so this move went against the public.
Circa 162 → 162.5, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 161.5 (-115) at FanDuel, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 55% on the Under.
Pinnacle 162 (-118) · Circa 162.5 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 161.5 (-115) at FanDuel
Best Under at your books: Under 163.5 (-107) at Bally Bet
- Best Over all week: Over 158.5 (-110) at theScore Bet, Sat, 11/7, 1:20 PM to Sat, 11/7, 2:38 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 163.5 (-107 to -109) at Bally Bet, Sun, 11/8, 11:29 AM (still up)
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Arkansas | Virginia |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +4.5-113 | -4.5-104 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sat, 11/7 · not the opener | +2-109 | -2-109 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +4-110since Sun 12:40 PM | -4-110since Sun 12:40 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +4.5-115opened +2.5 -102 | -4.5-105opened -2.5 -118 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +1.5 -102 | opened -1.5 -120 |
| CaesarsYour book | check the app · unchanged 12 h | opened -2 -110 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +2.5 -115 | opened -2.5 -105 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened +2.5 -110 | opened -2.5 -113 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +1.5 -110 | opened -1.5 -110 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened +2.5 -109 | opened -2.5 -112 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Sun, Nov 8, 12:59 PM
Circa where pros bet · updated Sun, Nov 8, 12:59 PM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Sun, Nov 8, 12:40 PM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
Trends and officials appear here within the hour for upcoming games.
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Stadium not found, so there's no forecast for this game.
Injuries
College teams don't publish injury reports in a reliable feed, so there's nothing trustworthy to show here.