SharpstieriMemphis TigersatSouth Florida Bulls
Sharps are on Memphis, but no price at your books is worth it. Skip it.
Now: Memphis -5 (-110) at BetMGM (value −5.4%) · Pinnacle -4.5 (-109)
Never offered at your books (the best since Pinnacle moved to -4.5 (Mon 12:02 AM ET) was Memphis -5 (-110) at BetMGM, −5.4%). It may never come, so don't count on it.
- Big money at Circa: 96% of the money on 67% of the bets (Circa is where pros bet).
- No better price right now: once the juice is counted, none of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price on Memphis (Pinnacle: -4.5), so you'd be paying the same as everyone who waited, or more.
What it would take: It would take Memphis -4.5 at +102 or better or Memphis -3.5 at -110, or the moneyline at -179 or better, and that hasn't been offered since the sharp move. This isn't a forecast; lines rarely move back against sharp money. Alerts will tell you if it ever shows up.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.
Mixed signals: Circa money favor Memphis; the line moving 1 point their way favor South Florida. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read
- Pinnacle had Memphis -5.5 on Sun, Nov 8. It's now -4.5, 1 point toward South Florida.
- At DraftKings (mostly everyday bettors), 50% of spread bets are on Memphis.
- At Circa, where pros bet, only 67% of bets but 96% of the money is on Memphis: fewer, bigger bets.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $2K traded on Kalshi), South Florida are +165 to +179 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +169 and your best is +175.
- The total hasn't moved from 48.5.
Deep dive in Claude
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Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 2 moves
First seen at your books: South Florida +6.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: South Florida +6.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: South Florida +5.5 (-108)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from South Florida +6.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Circa South Florida +6.5 → South Florida +5.5, toward South Florida
Your books right then: best South Florida +6.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up for 20 min (until Sun, 11/8, 3:38 PM).
Pinnacle South Florida +5.5 → South Florida +4.5, toward South Florida
Your books right then: best South Florida +5.5 (-109) at Bally Bet, still up now.
DraftKings bets then: 50% on South Florida.
Pinnacle South Florida +4.5 (-107) · Circa South Florida +5.5 (-110)
Best South Florida at your books: South Florida +5.5 (-109) at Bally Bet
Best Memphis at your books: Memphis -4.5 (-115) at theScore Bet
- Best South Florida all week: South Florida +7.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, Sun, 11/8, 8:48 AM to Sun, 11/8, 8:58 AM
- Best Memphis all week: Memphis -4.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, Mon, 11/9, 12:02 AM (still up)
Total · 1 move
First seen at your books: 49.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: 48 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 48.5 (-110)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 49.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Circa 48 → 49, toward the Over
Your books right then: best Over 48.5 (-110) at FanDuel, still up now.
Pinnacle 48.5 (-110) · Circa 49 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 47.5 (-115) at Bally Bet
Best Under at your books: Under 48.5 (-108) at BetMGM
- Best Over all week: Over 47.5 (-117) at BetRivers, Sun, 11/8, 4:18 PM (still up)
- Best Under all week: Under 49.5 (-110 to -115) at theScore Bet, Sun, 11/8, 8:48 AM to Sun, 11/8, 11:40 AM
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Memphis | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | -4.5-109 | +4.5-107 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/8 · not the opener | -5.5-108 | +5.5-108 |
| ExchangesReference only | -5.5-100Kalshi -5.5 -103 · Novig -5.5 +104 · SX Bet -5.5 +105 · Polymarket -5.5 -101 · ProphetX -5.5 -100 | +5.5-118Kalshi +5.5 -121 · Novig +5.5 -113 · SX Bet +5.5 -112 · Polymarket +5.5 -119 · ProphetX +5.5 -118 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | -5.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM | +5.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | -5.5-108opened -6 -110 | +5.5-112opened +6 -110 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened -6.5 -105 | opened +6.5 -115 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened -6.5 -110 | opened +6.5 -112 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened -6.5 -110 | opened +6.5 -110 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened -7.5 -110 | opened +7.5 -112 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened -7.5 +100 | opened +7.5 -120 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened -7.5 -110 | opened +7.5 -112 |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
DraftKings mostly everyday bettors · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:20 AM
Circa where pros bet · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:20 AM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:49 AM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
5 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseSouth Florida are an underdog in a conference game. Teams in this spot are 1291-1229-43 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 740-718-27.
- Probably noiseMemphis are off a win by 17+. Teams in this spot are 936-917-37 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 563-547-19.
- Probably noiseSouth Florida are a home underdog. Teams in this spot are 639-605-25 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 375-348-13.
- Probably noiseMemphis are a road favorite. Teams in this spot are 605-639-25 ATS (49% cover); since 2024: 348-375-13.
- Probably noiseMemphis have 3+ more days of rest than their opponent. Teams in this spot are 537-567-11 ATS (49% cover); since 2024: 357-426-9.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 2022. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
This week's referee isn't posted yet (college crews aren't published).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Raymond James Stadium
Injuries
College teams don't publish injury reports in a reliable feed, so there's nothing trustworthy to show here.