SharpstieriAuburn TigersatMississippi State Bulldogs
Pass: the better price doesn't hold up on a second look.
- FanDuel has Auburn moneyline -132, worth about +1.5% vs Pinnacle's fair price, but it's held back: Pinnacle's number is less reliable here (it's more than 4 days before kickoff, when Pinnacle takes small bets), so a +1.5% edge isn't enough without an exchange or Circa agreeing.
What would make it a bet: A better price that also passes the check above: worth +1.5% or more against Pinnacle, without the exchanges or the other books saying otherwise. You'll get an alert if that happens.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.
Quiet game: the line hasn't moved much and no sharp money shows up. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read
- The spread hasn't moved. Pinnacle has had Auburn -3 since we started tracking it (Sun, Nov 8).
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- The total hasn't moved from 50.
Deep dive in Claude
Copies a ready-made request plus everything this page knows (every book's prices and moves, splits, injuries, weather, trends and the app's call). Paste it into the Claude app for a researched preview, a final-score prediction and the betting angle, fact-checked. Your Claude subscription covers it.
Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 0 moves
First seen at your books: Mississippi State +5.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: Mississippi State +3 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: Mississippi State +3 (-108)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from Mississippi State +5.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle Mississippi State +3 (-113) · Circa Mississippi State +3 (-110)
Best Mississippi State at your books: Mississippi State +3.5 (-134) at FanDuel
Best Auburn at your books: Auburn -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- Best Mississippi State all week: Mississippi State +5.5 (-110) at FanDuel, Sun, 11/8, 12:32 AM to Sun, 11/8, 12:38 AM
- Best Auburn all week: Auburn -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM, Sun, 11/8, 10:08 PM (still up)
Total · 0 moves
First seen at your books: 50.5 (FanDuel)
Circa first seen: 50.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 50 (-110)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 50.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle 50 (-110) · Circa 50.5 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 49.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Best Under at your books: Under 50.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- Best Over all week: Over 49.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, Sun, 11/8, 4:54 PM to Sun, 11/8, 6:56 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 50.5 (-115) at theScore Bet, Sun, 11/8, 6:56 PM (still up)
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Auburn | Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | -3-103 | +3-113 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/8 · not the opener | -3-108 | +3-108 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | -3-110since Sun 3:18 PM | +3-110since Sun 3:18 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | -3-102opened -3.5 -110 | +3-118opened +3.5 -110 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened -5.5 -110 | opened +5.5 -110 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened -3.5 -106 | check the app · unchanged 10 h |
| BetMGMYour book | opened -3 -110 | opened +3 -108 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened here | opened here |
| theScore BetYour book | opened here | opened here |
| Bally BetYour book | opened here | opened here |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:49 AM
Circa where pros bet
Not available for this game. Our splits provider only gets Circa's numbers for a few big games a week (this weekend, 2 of about 80 football games), so most games never show them. The DraftKings split plus the way Pinnacle's line moves is the read the app uses for the rest.
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
- Probably noiseMississippi State have lost 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 413-402-11 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 231-241-7. Overs went 436-370-10 (leans).
3 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseMississippi State are an underdog in a conference game. Teams in this spot are 1291-1229-43 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 740-718-27.
- Probably noiseMississippi State are a home underdog. Teams in this spot are 639-605-25 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 375-348-13.
- Probably noiseAuburn are a road favorite. Teams in this spot are 605-639-25 ATS (49% cover); since 2024: 348-375-13.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 2022. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
This week's referee isn't posted yet (college crews aren't published).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Davis Wade Stadium
Injuries
College teams don't publish injury reports in a reliable feed, so there's nothing trustworthy to show here.