SharpstieriGeorgia Southern EaglesatGeorgia State Panthers
Sharps are on Georgia Southern, but no price at your books is worth it. Skip it.
Now: Georgia Southern -5.5 (-108) at BetMGM (value −5.1%) · Pinnacle -5.5 (-105)
Never offered at your books (the best since Pinnacle moved to -5.5 (Sun 4:30 PM ET) was Georgia Southern -5.5 (-108) at BetMGM, −5.1%). It may never come, so don't count on it.
Close to fair For fun only: Georgia Southern moneyline -200 at FanDuel is −0.7% vs Pinnacle's fair price, roughly break-even. Not an edge; keep it small (no more than $25 to win).
- Big money at Circa: 94% of the money on 67% of the bets (Circa is where pros bet).
- No better price right now: once the juice is counted, none of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price on Georgia Southern (Pinnacle: -5.5), so you'd be paying the same as everyone who waited, or more.
What it would take: It would take Georgia Southern -5.5 at +105 or better, or the moneyline at -190 or better, and that hasn't been offered since the sharp move. This isn't a forecast; lines rarely move back against sharp money. Alerts will tell you if it ever shows up.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.
Sharp signals point to Georgia Southern: Circa money. Exchanges lean further toward Georgia State than Pinnacle does. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read
- The spread hasn't moved. Pinnacle has had Georgia Southern -5.5 since we started tracking it (Sun, Nov 8).
- At Circa, where pros bet, only 67% of bets but 94% of the money is on Georgia Southern: fewer, bigger bets.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $0K traded on Kalshi), Georgia State are +148 to +174 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +178 and your best is +180. Exchanges give Georgia State a 36.1% chance vs Pinnacle's 33.8%.
- The total hasn't moved from 56.5.
Deep dive in Claude
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Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 0 moves
First seen at your books: Georgia State +4.5 / Georgia State +5.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, theScore Bet)
Circa first seen: Georgia State +5.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: Georgia State +5.5 (-108)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from Georgia State +4.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle Georgia State +5.5 (-111) · Circa Georgia State +5.5 (-110)
Best Georgia State at your books: Georgia State +5.5 (-105) at theScore Bet
Best Georgia Southern at your books: Georgia Southern -5.5 (-108) at BetMGM
- Best Georgia State all week: Georgia State +6 (-110) at BetMGM, Sun, 11/8, 3:28 PM to Sun, 11/8, 3:56 PM
- Best Georgia Southern all week: Georgia Southern -4.5 (-110) at FanDuel, Sun, 11/8, 11:42 AM to Sun, 11/8, 12:10 PM
Total · 0 moves
First seen at your books: 55.5 / 56.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, theScore Bet)
Circa first seen: 56.5 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 56.5 (-110)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 55.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle 56.5 (-110) · Circa 56.5 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 56.5 (-108) at BetMGM
Best Under at your books: Under 56.5 (-110) at FanDuel
- Best Over all week: Over 55.5 (-110) at BetMGM, Sun, 11/8, 3:28 PM to Sun, 11/8, 3:56 PM
- Best Under all week: Under 56.5 (-112) at BetRivers, Sun, 11/8, 6:30 PM (still up)
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Georgia Southern | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | -5.5-105 | +5.5-111 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/8 · not the opener | -5.5-108 | +5.5-108 |
| ExchangesReference only | -5.5-114Kalshi -5.5 -112 · Novig -5.5 -104 · SX Bet -5.5 -122 · Polymarket -5.5 -114 · ProphetX -5.5 -362 | +5.5-121Kalshi +5.5 -121 · Novig +5.5 -113 · SX Bet +5.5 -126 · Polymarket +5.5 -119 · ProphetX +5.5 -145 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | -5.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM | +5.5-110since Sun 3:18 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | -5.5-110opened here | +5.5-110opened here |
| FanDuelYour book | opened -4.5 -110 | opened +4.5 -110 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened here | opened here |
| BetMGMYour book | opened -5.5 -110 | opened +5.5 -108 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened here | opened here |
| theScore BetYour book | opened -5.5 -110 | check the app · unchanged 12 h |
| Bally BetYour book | opened here | opened here |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
Circa where pros bet · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:20 AM
BetMGM another public book, % of bets only · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:49 AM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
None of the situations in this game stand out: every record is close enough to 50/50 to be luck.
5 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseGeorgia State are an underdog in a conference game. Teams in this spot are 1291-1229-43 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 740-718-27.
- Probably noiseGeorgia Southern are off a win by 17+. Teams in this spot are 936-917-37 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 563-547-19.
- Probably noiseGeorgia State are a home underdog. Teams in this spot are 639-605-25 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 375-348-13.
- Probably noiseGeorgia Southern are a road favorite. Teams in this spot are 605-639-25 ATS (49% cover); since 2024: 348-375-13.
- Probably noiseGeorgia Southern have won 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 583-577-20 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 334-336-6.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 2022. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
This week's referee isn't posted yet (college crews aren't published).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Center Parc Stadium
Injuries
College teams don't publish injury reports in a reliable feed, so there's nothing trustworthy to show here.