SharpstieriTroy TrojansatSouth Alabama Jaguars
Sharps are on Troy, but no price at your books is worth it. Skip it.
Now: Troy +2.5 (-104) at FanDuel (value −2.8%) · Pinnacle +2.5 (-106)
Only before the sharp move: Caesars had Troy +3 (-110) (Sun 3:12 PM ET), but not since Pinnacle moved to +2.5 (Sun 6:48 PM ET); the best since was Troy +2.5 (-102) at FanDuel (−1.9%). It may not come back.
- Big money at Circa: 92% of the money on 67% of the bets (Circa is where pros bet).
- No better price right now: once the juice is counted, none of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price on Troy (Pinnacle: +2.5), so you'd be paying the same as everyone who waited, or more.
What it would take: It would take Troy +2.5 at +104 or better or Troy +3 at -110, or the moneyline at +126 or better, and that hasn't been offered since the sharp move. This isn't a forecast; lines rarely move back against sharp money. Alerts will tell you if it ever shows up.
Based on the sharp signals and prices on this page, not a guarantee. Good bets still lose often; the goal is better numbers than the market over many bets. Every call is graded on the Track record.
Sharp signals point to Troy: Circa money. None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted.
The read
- The spread hasn't moved. Pinnacle has had South Alabama -2.5 since we started tracking it (Sun, Nov 8).
- At Circa, where pros bet, only 67% of bets but 92% of the money is on Troy: fewer, bigger bets.
- None of your books beats Pinnacle's fair price once the juice is counted, so there's nothing to grab right now. (A better number with heavy juice can still be a worse bet.)
- On the exchanges (reference only, about $0K traded on Kalshi), Troy are +106 to +117 on the moneyline; Pinnacle has +115 and your best is +115.
- The total hasn't moved from 56.
Deep dive in Claude
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Line timeline
Every time Pinnacle changed its number, with the old number still at your books right then and how long it lasted. That window is when the best price is there to grab. Times are ET; prices are checked every 2–30 minutes, so the exact minute can be off a little.
Spread · 1 move
First seen at your books: South Alabama -1.5 / South Alabama -2.5 / South Alabama -3 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, theScore Bet)
Circa first seen: South Alabama -3 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: South Alabama -2.5 (-108)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from South Alabama -1.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Circa South Alabama -3 → South Alabama -2.5, toward Troy
Your books right then: best Troy +2.5 (-102) at FanDuel, still up for 4h 50m (until Sun, 11/8, 11:30 PM).
Pinnacle South Alabama -2.5 (-110) · Circa South Alabama -2.5 (-110)
Best South Alabama at your books: South Alabama -2.5 (-109) at Bally Bet
Best Troy at your books: Troy +2.5 (-104) at FanDuel
- Best South Alabama all week: South Alabama -1.5 (-115) at FanDuel, Sun, 11/8, 11:46 AM to Sun, 11/8, 11:52 AM
- Best Troy all week: Troy +3.5 (-120) at theScore Bet, Sun, 11/8, 1:10 PM to Sun, 11/8, 3:24 PM
Total · 0 moves
First seen at your books: 56.5 / 56 / 55.5 (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, theScore Bet)
Circa first seen: 56 (-110)
Pinnacle first seen: 56 (-110)
Not the opener: your books had already moved from 56.5 before the app first saw Pinnacle.
Pinnacle 56 (-110) · Circa 56 (-110)
Best Over at your books: Over 55.5 (-105) at FanDuel
Best Under at your books: Under 56.5 (-110) at theScore Bet
- Best Over all week: Over 55.5 (-105) at FanDuel, Sun, 11/8, 11:30 PM (still up)
- Best Under all week: Under 56.5 (-110) at theScore Bet, Sun, 11/8, 6:52 PM (still up)
How the line moved
Pinnacle is the sharp book: it takes the biggest bets and moves first. When your books trail it, that number is often worth grabbing.
| Book | Troy | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| PinnacleSharp price now · can't bet here | +2.5-106 | -2.5-110 |
| PinnacleFirst seen Sun, 11/8 · not the opener | +2.5-108 | -2.5-108 |
| ExchangesReference only | +2.5-112Kalshi +2.5 -112 · Novig +2.5 +100 · SX Bet +2.5 -122 · Polymarket +2.5 -114 · ProphetX +2.5 -103 | -2.5-121Kalshi -2.5 -121 · Novig -2.5 -117 · SX Bet -2.5 -126 · Polymarket -2.5 -119 · ProphetX -2.5 -126 |
| CircaSharpest legal US book · 2nd sharp price · Nevada, not NY | +2.5-110since Sun 6:40 PM | -2.5-110since Sun 6:40 PM |
| DraftKingsThe public's book · view only | +2.5-105opened +2.5 -115 | -2.5-115opened -2.5 -105 |
| FanDuelYour book | opened +1.5 -105 | opened -1.5 -115 |
| CaesarsYour book | opened +2.5 -104 | opened -2.5 -117 |
| BetMGMYour book | opened +3 -115 | opened -3 -105 |
| BetRiversYour book | opened here | opened -2.5 -109 |
| theScore BetYour book | opened +2.5 -110 | opened -2.5 -110 |
| Bally BetYour book | opened +2.5 -113 | opened here |
Opened = the first price the app saved at that book (for games posted before Sep 17, the earliest it has). Best = the best value at your books. The % = how much better (+) or worse (−) each price is than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice (a better number with heavy juice can still be worse). Green is +1% or more: worth betting. Most prices are a little negative: that's the book's cut. Tap any price at your books to log a bet.
Check a boost
Got a boosted price or a profit boost at your book? Enter it to see if it beats Pinnacle's fair price. Books boost to get you betting; some boosts are genuinely good, many aren't.
Money vs tickets · Spread
Few bets but lots of money on one side means big bettors are there. If the line moves against the side most people bet, that's reverse line movement. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits; Circa is the sharp-book view when it posts a game.
Circa where pros bet · updated Mon, Nov 9, 12:20 AM
Trends & officials
How teams in the same spot have done ATS (against the spread), and who's refereeing.
- Probably noiseSouth Alabama have lost 3+ straight. Teams in this spot are 413-402-11 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 231-241-7. Overs went 436-370-10 (leans).
2 more situations apply, all probably noise
- Probably noiseTroy are an underdog in a conference game. Teams in this spot are 1291-1229-43 ATS (51% cover); since 2024: 740-718-27.
- Probably noiseTroy are off a loss by 17+. Teams in this spot are 727-717-21 ATS (50% cover); since 2024: 432-428-12.
ATS = against the closing spread. Records since 2022. The same fixed list of situations is checked for every game, and each is labeled for how likely it is to be luck given that many were checked. The betting market knows these trends too.
This week's referee isn't posted yet (college crews aren't published).
Game context
Weather and injuries often explain a line move before the numbers do. Updated every hour.
Weather at kickoff
Hancock Whitney Stadium
Injuries
College teams don't publish injury reports in a reliable feed, so there's nothing trustworthy to show here.