SharpstieriModel check
Is the edge real, and can you get it? Every number shows how many calls it rests on; anything under 30 graded calls is marked “not enough yet.” Worth a look every Monday.
Data health
✓ Everything is updating normally.
Football prices checked 11 min ago · baseball full pull 31 min ago · splits 14 min ago · 24,771 odds-data credits left (resets the 4th).
Are the edges real? 6 so far · not enough yet
Each call's predicted edge vs how it actually did against Pinnacle's closing price. If calls predicted at +4% only beat the close by +2%, the app is overestimating, and bet sizes are too big.
| Predicted edge | Calls | Predicted | Actual vs close |
| +1% to +2% | 1 | +2.0% | +2.0% |
| +2% to +3% | 1 | +2.1% | −8.8% |
| +3% to +5% | 1 | +3.5% | −4.8% |
| +5% or more | 3 | +5.5% | +5.8% |
| All | 6 | +4.0% | +1.0% |
Not enough graded calls yet to judge. Until then, treat the edges as rough. (actual is 24% of predicted so far)
Can you get the prices?
From your “Got it / It was gone” taps on each Take it now (on the game page and the Track record) and the bets you log.
| Calls | 8 |
| You got it | 3 |
| It was gone | 5 |
| Not marked | 0 |
| Got it, of the ones marked | 38% (8 marked) |
Sign in on My Bets to compare your bets with the called prices.
Which signals work?
Every signal a call rested on, graded on its own (a call counts under each of its signals). Keep an eye on the ones that reach 30 graded calls.
| Signal | Calls | Beat the close | Avg vs close |
| Price only | 5 | 2 of 4 | −1.3% * |
| Priced from Pinnacle's own line | 3 | 1 of 2 | −3.6% * |
| Reverse line move | 2 | 1 of 1 | +2.0% * |
| Pinnacle moved their way | 2 | 2 of 2 | +4.5% * |
| College mismatch | 1 | – | – * |
| Exchange confirmed | 1 | – | – * |
| Fast-moving price | 1 | – | – * |
| Steam move | 1 | 1 of 1 | +2.0% * |
* fewer than 30 graded calls: not enough to judge yet.
By sport
| Sport | Calls | Beat the close | Avg vs close |
| NFL | 1 | – | – * |
| College football | 1 | – | – * |
| MLB | 6 | 4 of 6 | +1.0% * |
Which book lags?
For each of your books: how long its called prices usually lasted, how often it pulled or locked them, and how often you found them gone. The book whose prices last longest is the one to check first when an alert comes in.
| Book | Calls | Usually lasted | Pulled / locked | You found it gone | Avg vs close |
| Caesars | 4 | 18 min | 0% of 3 | 75% of 4 | +0.6% |
| FanDuel | 3 | 6 min | 67% of 3 | 67% of 3 | +4.3% |
| BetMGM | 1 | 10 min | 0% of 1 | 0% of 1 | −4.8% |
See every call on the Track record. Scheduled deeper looks: the baseball replay on Fri Oct 2; on Mon Oct 5, the first full week of calibration and signals, plus a pre-set test of the signal weights (if big Pinnacle moves of 2+ points keep predicting the close on new games, their weight goes from 1 to 2).