Sharpstieri

MLB

20 games in the next 8 days · 6 with something worth a look

Sharpstieri
NFLCollege footballMLBNBANHLOnly games with signals
What the tags mean
Take it now
The sharp signals point to a team AND one of your books still has a better number than Pinnacle. Bet it at that book before it catches up.
Sharp side: wait
Sharps are on a team, and one of your books has offered a good enough price since the sharp move, so it can realistically come around again. The box names the price; bet only if a book offers it.
Sharp side: no bet
The sharps are on a team (or the over/under), but no price at your books is worth betting, and none good enough has been offered since the sharp move. The box shows what price it would take, but that's not a prediction: lines rarely move back against sharp money. Skip it unless an alert says otherwise.
Too late
The sharp move already happened, kickoff is close, and no book has an old number left. Don't chase it.
Pass
No clear sharp side (a better number alone isn't enough). Most games are a pass; skipping them is part of betting like a sharp.
Unit
Your standard bet: 1–2% of the money you've set aside for betting. Bet the same size every time and never raise it to win back losses.
Reverse line move
Most people bet one side, but the line moves toward the other side. Books normally move toward where the money is, so moving against the crowd usually means a smaller number of respected, bigger bettors are on the other side. It's the best-known sharp signal.
Big money
One side has a much bigger share of the money than of the bets. Example: 30% of bets but 70% of the money means a few large bets. At Circa, where professionals bet, this matters most.
Steam move
Pinnacle and at least two other books move the line the same way within about an hour. That usually happens when a lot of money hits at once, often from sharp bettors. Your books moving together without Pinnacle doesn't count; that's usually a routine reset.
Key number
In football, many games end with a 3- or 7-point margin. A spread moving across 3 or 7 (say -2.5 to -3.5) changes more games' results than an ordinary half point.
Better price at your book
FanDuel, Caesars or BetMGM is offering something worth at least 1% more than Pinnacle's fair price, counting both the number and the juice. A better number with heavy juice (say +3 at -117 vs Pinnacle's +2.5 at +101) can still be the worse bet, so the app scores both together.
Value %
How much better (+) or worse (−) a price is than Pinnacle's fair price, per dollar bet, after the juice. +2% means about 2 cents better per dollar than a fair bet. Half points are valued from how often games land on each margin (3 and 7 matter most).
Big move / total moved
The line or total has moved a lot since it opened. Something changed: injuries, weather, or money.
Pinnacle
The sportsbook professional bettors trust most. It takes big bets and moves its line fast, so its number is treated as the "sharp" price. You can't bet there; it's the yardstick.
DraftKings vs Circa splits
DraftKings shows what everyday bettors are doing (the public). Circa, a Las Vegas book, takes big bets from pros. When the two disagree, Circa usually tells you where the smart money is. Pinnacle doesn't publish its splits.
Exchanges (Kalshi, Novig, Matchbook, SX Bet, Polymarket)
Markets where bettors trade with each other and the site takes a small fee instead of building a margin into the odds. Their prices sit close to the true market, and Kalshi shows how much money has traded. Shown for research only; your best price is still from FanDuel, Caesars and BetMGM.
ATS (against the spread)
A team's record once the spread is counted. If a team is +4.5 and loses by 3, that's a win ATS. 8-29 ATS means teams in that spot covered the spread 8 times and failed 29 times.
Trends and their labels
A trend is how teams in the same spot did ATS, against the closing spread (e.g. 'off an overtime win on a short week: 4-19 ATS'). The app checks the same fixed list of spots for every game and labels each: 'Worth noting' is unlikely to be luck even after counting how many spots were checked; 'Leans' could be luck; 'Probably noise' is close enough to 50/50 to ignore. TV trends skip this step.
Closing line value (CLV)
Did you get a better number than where the line ended up at kickoff? Bettors who beat the closing line over time tend to win; it's the honest scorecard on My Bets.

What to do

Nothing to take right now. Every other game is a pass, and that's normal: sharps only bet a few games a week. Track record

Thursday, Sep 24
Friday, Sep 25
Pirates@TigersFri 6:41 PM
PassBig money on Pirates

At DraftKings, the Pirates have 74% of the money on only 40% of the bets: fewer, bigger bets.

Moneyline Pirates -106 → -106 no moveTotal 7.5 → 7.5 no move60% of bets on Tigers
Rays@PhilliesFri 6:41 PM
PassBig money on Rays

At DraftKings, the Rays have 87% of the money on only 50% of the bets: fewer, bigger bets.

Moneyline Phillies -155 → -155 no moveTotal 6.5 → 6.5 no move
Mets@NationalsFri 6:46 PM
PassJust posted
Moneyline Mets -134Total 8.587% of bets on Mets
Reds@Blue JaysFri 7:08 PM
PassJust posted
Moneyline Blue Jays -136Total 7.5
Braves@MarlinsFri 7:11 PM
PassJust posted
Moneyline Braves -124Total 8.580% of bets on Braves
Rockies@White SoxFri 7:40 PM
Pass
Moneyline White Sox -215 → -215 no moveTotal 8 → 8 no move93% of bets on White Sox
Guardians@RoyalsFri 7:41 PM
Pass
Moneyline Guardians -133 → -133 no moveTotal 8 → 8 no move70% of bets on Guardians
Cardinals@BrewersFri 7:41 PM
Pass
Moneyline Brewers -177 → -177 no moveTotal 8 → 8 no move92% of bets on Brewers
Rangers@TwinsFri 8:11 PM
Pass
Moneyline Twins -105 → -105 no moveTotal 7.5 → 7.5 no move83% of bets on Twins
Diamondbacks@PadresFri 9:41 PM
PassBig money on DiamondbacksJust posted

At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks have 83% of the money on only 8% of the bets: fewer, bigger bets.

Moneyline Padres -132Total 7.592% of bets on Padres
Angels@MarinersFri 10:11 PM
Pass
Moneyline Mariners -130 → -130 no moveTotal 7 → 7 no move
Dodgers@GiantsFri 10:16 PM
Pass
Moneyline Dodgers -375 → -375 no moveTotal 7.5 → 7.5 no move